U.S. Henry Hub natural gas futures (NATGAS) are losing more than 2% today and slipping below $2.5 per MMBtu.
Weather forecasts suggest a movement of a wave of cooler temperatures toward the central US states and a gentle drop in temperatures on the East Coast.
- Not only lower air conditioning demand in many regions of the US, but also historically high inventories above the 5-year average are causing oversupply concerns. The five-year average change in gas inventories for the week ended June 28 was +69 billion cubic feet; more than 20% above the five-year average.
- Recent heat waves have failed to lift gas prices permanently above $3 per MMBtu. Projected lower demand, full storage facilities and higher production are weighing on sentiment. In Texas, where high temperatures persist, power grid operator ERCOT conveyed that peak demand this week will approach but not break this year's records.
NATGAS is losing 2.5% today and testing a key support zone set by the 100-day exponential moving average (purple curve on the chart). Source: xStation
Forecasts show a drop in temperatures in parts of the central and eastern US coast. Source: NOAA
The market side is concerned that lower forecasts will accentuate the negative price-forming impact caused by high inventories against the historical 5-year average. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP
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