Henry Hub US natural gas futures (NATGAS) are down more than 3% today, pressured by high production levels and cooler weather forecasts in the United States.
- The shoulder season suggests that the gap between ample supply and weaker demand may “seasonally” widen, pushing prices back toward the lows seen in the second half of August.
- On the other hand, if US weather were to shift sharply colder or warmer in the coming weeks, a rebound above $3 per MMBtu still looks realistic, particularly as production is also likely to decline.
As shown on the map below, temperature forecasts for the most populated and heat-sensitive regions of the US (West and East Coasts) are below average, reinforcing the current bearish momentum in gas prices.
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Centre
NATGAS has broken lower from its rising price channel, and if another downward impulse is triggered around the $2.90 level, the next meaningful support sits near $2.70 per MMBtu, marked by previous price reactions. A move back above $3 would suggest an attempt to reestablish the uptrend.
Source: xStation5
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