The major cryptocurrency is once again trying to rise above $25,000, something it has failed to do several times over the past week. Indexes in the US, with which cryptocurrencies correlate, opened in weaker sentiment after an extended weekend. On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that the fundamentals for the continuation of Bitcoin's bull market are still in doubt.
Despite a nearly 50% increase in the price of BTC since the beginning of the year, the number of active BTC addresses and on-chain volume have not increased significantly, putting the current rally at odds with the previous bullish bounces of 2018 and 2020 when both metrics showed strong improvement. Glassnode also confirmed that on-chain volume remains muted (despite an increase in on-chain activity thanks to so-called 'Ordinals') with both long-term and short-term investors unwilling to realize gains or losses at current prices. 
Since the price of an asset is determined by the laws of supply and demand in the market, cryptocurrency markets are no exception. The attached chart shows the 30-day moving average (MA) of active addresses. The average was rising after the bear market of 2018 and the covid crash of March 2020. There is still no clear trend in 2023. Source: CryptoQuant
On the other hand, the average losses of long-term investors reached a 58% level in November 2022 (compared to 21% in the second week of February 2023) and turned out to be the highest in history, indicating a possible bottom of the bear market (maximum long term holders oversold level). Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin, M30 interval. The price has again risen above the SMA100, but demand has failed to maintain the upper hand and is slipping again below support at the SMA200 (red line), indicating active supply side. The RSI indicator shows levels getting closer to oversold. In the case of another downward impulse, 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci rettracement of the upward wave which has been started in mid-February, may prove to be important resistance levels. Source: xStation5
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