Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest level in four years, with West Texas Intermediate (OIL.WTI) crude dropping more than 19% in April while Brent trades near $61 a barrel. This marks the largest monthly decline since November 2021, driven by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and OPEC+ supply increases.
Trade War and OPEC+ Squeeze Markets
President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs, particularly targeting China, has severely dampened the energy consumption outlook. The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time since 2022, while China's factory activity fell into its worst contraction since December 2023. Major Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have slashed their oil price forecasts, now projecting Brent to average $68.23 per barrel this year, down from March's forecast of $72.13.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering accelerating production increases at its May 5 meeting, with Saudi Arabia reportedly prepared to weather prolonged low prices. Despite U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly dropping by 2.7 million barrels last week, market volatility has intensified, with the United States Oil Fund experiencing erratic trading flows and retail investor participation amplifying price swings.
OIL.WTI (D1)
Oil is currently retesting 4-year lows at 58 USD. Bears are likely to retest low at 55 USD while bulls will try to regain 60 USD.
Chart of the day: GBPCHF snaps back on retail sales recovery 🇬🇧 📈 (19.06.2026)
Economic Calendar: Liquidity Overshadowed by Juneteenth (19.06.2026)
Morning Wrap: Asia pulls back on peace skepticism. Tokyo flags yen intervention (19.06.2026)
Daily Summary: Dollar at 1-year high, stocks rebound on renewed risk appetite 🚀 (18.06.2026)
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
