Political uncertainty in Spain after the General Elections weighs on the Ibex35 (SPA35)

The Popular Party (PP) has prevailed in the elections, although far from the threshold of an absolute majority and much less than expected since its resounding victory in the municipal and regional elections on March 28. On the other hand, the PSOE has resisted strongly, even improving its result compared to four years ago.

Consequently, on this occasion, success was bittersweet for the PP, while defeat was gratifying for the PSOE. Although Alberto Núñez Feijóo won the elections, Pedro Sánchez could resume the government by forming a new alliance with the losers and with the acquiescence, in the form of abstention, from Junts, the party of Carles Puigdemont, who fled from justice.

The difference between the two main formations in the country is barely 14 seats. The popular ones have obtained 136 deputies, 47 more than four years ago under the leadership of Pablo Casado. For their part, the Socialists have avoided the disaster predicted by most polls and have added two deputies to the 120 they obtained in 2019.

The political panorama that is presented now is uncertain. The two right-wing forces, PP and Vox, have 169 seats, leaving seven behind the absolute majority. Feijóo, making negotiating efforts, could add two more deputies to his account with the seat won by Unión del Pueblo Navarro (UPN) and, with much more effort, the one obtained by Coalición Canaria (CC). However, this last option would be especially complicated, since the Canary Islands Coalition has always stated that it would not support a government in which Vox participates.

source: El Mundo

The duo on the left, PSOE and Sumar, has achieved 153 seats, two less than the previous legislature when PSOE and Unidas Podemos added. However, with the support of the range of parties of the so-called "Sánchez investiture block", they would reach 172 seats, one more than the block on the right.

Pedro Sánchez appeared in Ferraz radiant despite the electoral defeat, knowing that he has a wide spectrum of forces to negotiate, which could once again open the doors of La Moncloa for him. His fervent followers chanted "They will not pass, they will not pass." Sánchez affirmed that in these elections it was shown that in Spain "there are more" those who want the country to continue advancing under his leadership.

Junts is not included in the calculation of practically certain allies that the socialist leader manages, a party that during the campaign assured that it would not support either Sánchez or Feijóo. However, this commitment could change in exchange for the PSOE accepting lawsuits close to unconstitutionality. Last night, the spokesperson for the formation in Congress, Miriam Nogueras, warned in this regard. The other parties that could back the socialist leader, such as ERC, BNG, PNV and EH Bildu, will also demand a high price for their votes.

With this panorama, the Spanish selective has started the session and the post-election week with falls of 1.5%. With the added difficulty that the selective closed on Friday in a resistance zone above 9,600 points and now, the projection indicates the possibility of testing at least the key support zone between 9,250-9,300 points.

Source: xStation

For now, the historical statistics are maintained, of the last 10 general elections, on 9 occasions the Spanish index (Total Return) has opened and closed the post-electoral session with falls.

Darío Garcia, EFA
XTB Spain