Faced with the upcoming release of Tesla's Q3 car deliveries data (2 October), Piper Sandler lowered its Q3 forecast by more than 10% from 515,000 previously to 445,000. The latest supply report could be published as early as this Sunday.
Analysts cited weakening weekly data and indicated that the reason for the change is the closure of production at the Austin and Shanghai factories ahead of the introduction of production of the new Tesla 3 and Tesla Cybetruck models.
With an increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment, the potential to surprise markets with significantly higher delivery volumes is diminishing. Piper Sandler concluded that, ultimately, the closure of factories from a profitability perspective may be justified and should not be interpreted negatively by which, even in the event of weaker financial results, appropriate management should reduce supply.
Price cuts on Tesla's most popular models, according to the company's introduced plan, were supposed to increase the level of car sales. This also happened, as confirmed by the reported quarterly data. On the other hand, however, the emerging production surplus over reported sales could be an element of risk in the future due to the reported lower consumer activity in the US, but demand in Europe for Tesla vehicles remains very high. Source: XTB, Bloomberg
Since the beginning of August 2022, Model Y and Model 3 registrations have increased by 208% and 307%, respectively, putting Tesla at the top of the overall brand ranking for registered EVs in Europe (in MoM terms (July), registrations are up 90% and 110.4%, respectively).
The company's shares are currently testing the resistance level set by the 50-day exponential moving average (blue curve). Source: xStation 5
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