Crude oil remains one of the most volatile commodities as the Russia-Ukraine war threatens to significantly disrupt the supply of this energy commodity. Crude oil will remain in the spotlight next week, with traders also looking forward to the RBA decision and the release of the FOMC minutes. Particularly interesting instruments for the upcoming week will be USDJPY, AUDUSD and OIL.WTI, where increased volatility should be expected.
USDJPY
The FOMC minutes are the key macro event of the week. The minutes of the quarterly FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday at 7:00 p.m BST. The minutes will be closely watched as Fed Chair Powell has hinted that the minutes will include details on the balance sheet reduction discussion. It is said that the decision to start quantitative tightening may be made as early as May. The announcement of such a scenario in the FOMC minutes may support US bond yields and the USD. Since USDJPY is one of the USD-linked pairs that reacts most to changes in US yields, it will certainly be watched closely next week.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD is one of the pairs that could face increased volatility in the week ahead. Not only because of Wednesday's FOMC minutes, but also because of the RBA decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia will make an announcement on Tuesday at 5:30 a.m. BST. While the Bank has made it clear that rate hikes are currently out of the question, the rise in commodity prices, and the resulting inflation, may cause it to reconsider that view. AUDUSD recently climbed to 5-month highs but stalled near the 0.7550 level.
OIL.WTI
Crude oil has remained in the spotlight lately due to the continued massive volatility in this market. OPEC+ continues to resist calls to increase production, forcing the United States to re-release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Next week, U.S. oil company executives are scheduled to testify in Congress about high oil prices. Questions are likely to be asked about unused drilling permits, and whether they plan to take any action to increase U.S. production. But will this have any impact on prices? We will find out in the coming days.
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