US Closed: Postponed negotiations weigh on futures

As a reminder, there will be no trading session on Wall Street today. Americans are celebrating Juneteenth, which commemorates the abolition of slavery in the United States. Under these conditions, a drop in liquidity is visible in the global market, and investor activity is limited.

The lack of trading on the cash market (the segment where buy and sell transactions are settled immediately) does not, however, mean that operations on the futures market have stopped.

Indices

This gives us an insight into the sentiment prevailing in the US market today (although it should be noted that due to the US market closure, movements in futures contracts may be more volatile and less representative of the full market picture). Declines prevail – futures contracts on the S&P 500 are down by 0.2%, with the Nasdaq 100 declining by 0.3%. The postponement of the next round of peace talks, which were to take place today in Burgenstock, Switzerland, is not helping.

Geopolitics

The reason for the cancellation of the talks is not clear. The American side speaks of unresolved logistical problems, while the Iranian side speaks of another wave of Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which violate the terms of the memorandum signed on Wednesday. What is certain, however, is that this is not the end of the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East.

Energy commodities

In the face of these events, we observed modest increases in energy commodity prices in the early hours of trading. However, a subsequent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah led to renewed declines. For Brent crude oil we must pay about $79, while WTI oscillates around $76. On the other hand, the price of gas on the Dutch TTF exchange is heading upwards (currently $41.8 per MWh).

Figure 1: OIL [D1] (23.10.2024 - 19.06.2026)

Source: xStation, 19.06.2026

Technical Analysis

Figure 2: US100 [D1] (15.10.2025 - 19.06.2026)

Source: xStation, 19.06.2026

After a deeper pullback to the vicinity of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the index returned to the medium-term uptrend, breaking through the 30k barrier. Moving averages are set up ideally for an uptrend; the EMA 50, running around 28.8k, acts as key support – as long as quotes remain above the area outlined by it, potential declines can be treated rather as a correction in the dominant uptrend.

The RSI indicator is around 60, which does not mean the market overheating yet. After the period of decline in the MACD histogram bars (which reflected the May correction), the downward momentum has clearly faded.

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst XTB