US OPEN: America Celebrates, Futures Rise

The U.S. stock market will not open today due to the holiday period in the United States related to Independence Day. Despite significantly reduced volume, trading and pricing continue via derivatives. US100 futures are up about 1.2% today, which can be interpreted as a correction of losses from the last two days. Smaller gains are seen in US500 and US2000 futures, with increases limited to 0.3–0.4%. Slight declines can be observed in US30.

News:

• Competition in the AI industry is intensifying. The Financial Times reports on a wide-ranging internal campaign at Anthropic focused on preventing further data theft and algorithm “scalping” to support the development of Chinese counterparts to the U.S.-based Claude/ChatGPT. At the same time, Alibaba, a leader in China’s AI industry, has officially banned the use of the Claude model within the organization, citing “security issues.”
• A funeral was held in Iran for the previous “Supreme Leader,” and according to media reports, many Iranian government officials appeared who had not been seen publicly for months. The market is treating this as confirmation that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has ended. The sell-off in oil is continuing.
• Meta is worsening sentiment in the technology sector. Yesterday, one hyperscaler announced it would sell “excess” computing capacity, which calls into question the thesis of a permanent shortage in the market. Today, Reuters reports that the company’s CEO expressed the view that the development of agentic AI, considered essential to the bullish AI industry thesis, is progressing more slowly than expected. A more optimistic note comes from Meta’s head of “Superintelligence,” Alexander Wang, who claims the company’s internal AI models have caught up with the products of industry leaders OpenAI and Anthropic.
• Donald Trump gave an interview to CNBC. Among the market-relevant remarks, the U.S. president set a goal that “40–60% of global chip production should be located in the U.S.” and that “U.S. GDP growth should be around 12–13%.” The president also said he intends to continue efforts to remove Lisa Cook (Fed) from her position following a court ruling.
• Tesla and Apple are supporting valuations of Chinese companies that supply these conglomerates. Chinese enterprises are seeing increased demand and production among selected firms.

US100 (D1)

The chart shows the formation of an ascending triangle. A three-time test of the peak around 30,500 indicates the strength of this resistance zone, while the increasingly smaller ranges of downward corrections simultaneously show weakening selling pressure. Source: xStation