US OPEN: Indices push to new highs; Financials clear Fed stress test (30.06.2025)

• Indices extend above recent all-time-highs

• Major financial institutions pass Fed’s stress tests

• Moderna flu shot success boosts combo vaccine hopes 

Wall Street begins the week with a great dose of optimism, with major indexes extending gains beyond recent all-time highs. Investor sentiment remains upbeat, driven by hopes for a swift de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and communicated progress on trade agreements with key U.S. partners. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 0.25%, while the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 each gain 0.3%.

New week opens on a high note primarily for the financial institutions. US banks rallied after passing the Federal Reserve’s stress tests, clearing the way for increased buybacks and dividends. Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup all gained in early trading. Analysts view the results as very positive, expecting lower capital buffers and higher shareholder payouts, with Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo seen as key beneficiaries.

Volatility within S&P 500 sectors. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

US500 (H1)

S&P 500 futures extended gains beyond Friday’s all-time high, supported by positive developments in trade negotiations and dovish expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Sellers attempted to fade the rally but were contained at the 24-hour EMA (light purple). The RSI remains comfortably below overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside—barring unexpected macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks. However, disappointment over post-July trade talks outcomes or prolonged negotiations could dampen sentiment and trigger a potential correction.

Source: xStation5

Company news:

• Boeing (BA.US): The UK’s CMA has launched an antitrust review of Boeing’s $4.7B acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, part of an $8.3B total deal including debt. A decision on a deeper probe is due by August 28. The deal would reunite Boeing with its former unit, a major supplier for the 737 and 787 jets. The planemaker’s stock falls 1.5%.

• GMS (GMS.US): shares surged nearly 12% after Home Depot’s unit SRS Distribution agreed to acquire GMS for $110 per share, valuing the deal at about $4.3 billion equity and $5.5 billion enterprise. The deal, expected to close by fiscal 2025-end, will be cash- and debt-funded and is projected to boost adjusted EPS in the first year post-close.

• HP Enterprise (HPE.US): The DOJ settled its antitrust lawsuit against HPE’s $13 billion Juniper acquisition, avoiding trial by requiring HPE to sell its Instant On wireless business and auction a license to Juniper’s Mist unit. The deal preserves competition while allowing the merger, which aims to boost AI-ready networking. This reflects a pragmatic DOJ approach to merger challenges. HPE’s stock is currently up 13%.

• Moderna (MRNA.US): company’s experimental flu vaccine surpassed efficacy goals in a late-stage trial, showing 27% better protection than existing vaccines for adults 50+. This paves the way for a combined Covid-flu shot, potentially boosting vaccine uptake. Shares rose 7.4%. Moderna aims to file for approval of both standalone and combo vaccines next year, leveraging faster mRNA technology. The stock is up nearly 3.2%.

• Oracle (ORCL.US): shares jumped 5.4% after revealing a cloud deal expected to generate over $30B in annual revenue starting FY2028. While the client remains unnamed, the deal highlights Oracle’s growing momentum in cloud and AI infrastructure. CEO Safra Catz noted database growth of 100%+ on rival clouds. The stock is up 26% YTD, near record highs.