US equity futures point to a subdued final session of the week as investors navigate geopolitical headwinds, rising inflation expectations and mounting worries over crowded AI capex positioning. Despite individual earnings bright spots like Intel, growing skepticism persists regarding whether current market valuations adequately reflect underlying macro risks.
Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) are leading losses today (-1.4%) and are currently testing major support in the form of a 100-day exponential moving average. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 futures are only modestly down compared to the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US500: +0.25%, US2000: +0.2%), while the resilience of Dow Jones futures (US30: +0.1%) underline the rotation of the capital towards more traditional companies.
Volatility in the Nasdaq 100 sectors, with tech being the major loser. Source: XTB Research
At the same time, positioning concerns are intensifying as extremely low correlation levels prompt the unwinding of volatility dispersion trades. Coupled with new US tariffs taking effect on 60 economies, market participants remain cautious about potential macro shocks amid historically thin risk premia.
Top 10 winners and losers in the Nasdaq 100. AI infrastructure companies are in the red the most. Source: xStation5
Technical Analysis: US100 (Nasdaq Futures)
Nasdaq 100 futures are testing a critical technical junction around 28,320, hovering directly on the 100-day EMA (28,389) and local horizontal support at 28,409. The index faces persistent selling pressure after breaking below its 10-day EMA (29,050) and 30-day EMA (29,394).
A sustained breakdown below this key support zone could trigger deeper losses toward lower structural levels. However, if bulls defend this long-term moving average, a bounce could target initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 28,966. With the RSI at 38.7, downside momentum dominates, though oversold territory approaches.
Source: xStation5
Company News:
-
Oracle (ORCL): Shares gained 2.3% in extended trading after securing a 10-year US Department of Defense contract worth $3.31 billion over the first five years, and up to $6.99 billion if options are exercised. The agreement covers on-premises software, SaaS applications, and professional services across defense organizations. However, shares are currently down 3.2%.
-
Verizon (VZ): Shares fell 1.2% premarket despite a Q2 EPS beat ($1.30 vs. $1.27 est.) and raising its full-year EPS forecast to $4.99–$5.04. Revenue missed estimates at $34.3 billion, but free cash flow jumped 24.4% to $6.4 billion, prompting an increase in full-year buybacks up to $4.5 billion. However, shares are currently up 2.7%.
-
Intel (INTC): Shares rose over 3% premarket after forecasting Q3 revenue of $15.8B–$16.8B, well above Wall Street estimates, driven by AI data center CPU demand. Q2 revenue rose 25% y/y to $16.1 billion, while adjusted EPS hit $0.42. Full-year capex is set at approximately $20 billion. However, shares are currently down 3%.
-
American Express (AXP): Shares dropped over 3% premarket as Q2 revenue ($19.64 billion) and net card fees ($2.86 billion) slightly missed expectations, despite an EPS beat of $4.53. AmEx raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 10%, citing strong momentum in its U.S. Consumer Platinum portfolio and Gen-Z/Millennial adoption. The decline exacerbated and shares are currently losing 5.8%
-
AMD (AMD): Shares rose 1% in premarket trading as Wall Street analysts raised price targets following a product event showcasing new AI products. Analysts cited strong long-term upside in AMD's GPU/CPU platforms, the scheduled launch of its Helios AI rack system, and multi-gigawatt partnership deals. However, share are currently down 2%.
Market Wrap: European Stocks Are Trying to Rebound as the Week Comes to an End💡
Alphabet shares are down 22% from their all-time high 🚩 Is Google ready to resume its bull run?
SAP earninigs: The cloud shows strong demand, margins remain under pressure
BREAKING: Eurozone recovery? Positive PMI data tempered by high oil and gas prices
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
