Investors are returning to US stocks and reversing an initial sell-off in anticipation of ‘Liberation Day’, during which US President Donald Trump will unveil a completely new US tariff policy, announcing tariffs on an unspecified number of countries and goods.
- Trump said he would be ‘very nice’ to other countries. Yesterday, White House spokeswoman Leavitt indicated that Trump is ‘seriously’ considering what is happening in the markets.
- According to anonymous sources familiar with the US administration’s plans, the US Trade Representative’s Office is preparing a third option: a blanket tariff on a select group of countries, which would likely be lower than the previous option of 20% universal tariffs.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also warned that the tariff changes would be subject to negotiation, reducing the risk of extreme changes.
- The US labour market’s change in employment in March, according to ADP, also came in well above forecasts, suggesting that fears of a US recession may be premature. The change was 155k jobs vs. 120k forecasts. Industrial production also rose more than expected, rising 0.6% m/m vs. 0.5% expectations.
All these elements give markets reasons to believe that the ‘tariff war’ and ‘Liberation Day’ are Trump’s negotiating tool, not a new method of shaping economic conditions in the United States.
US100 (H1 interval)
The US100 is recovering losses after the opening of the US session and is currently losing less than 0.3% against a nearly 1.3% drop after the ADP report. Looking at previous price reactions, we see that the area around 19,300 points could prove to be significant support for bulls.
On the M30 timeframe, we currently have a retest of the 200-period EMA (golden curve). This area could be a key resistance point in the short term.
Source: xStation5
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