S&P 500 (US500) futures trimmed losses from around -1% to approximately -0.2% while spot S&P 500 is reversing early decline rising almost 0,1% after Iranian sources suggested that Washington has initiated diplomatic outreach and that Tehran is willing to consider realistic proposals to end the conflict. While no formal negotiations have taken place yet, Iran has signaled openness to solutions that would:
- safeguard its national interests,
- guarantee that it will not pursue nuclear weapons,
- allow for the peaceful use of nuclear energy,
- and lead to the lifting of sanctions.
At the same time, Iran appears to be sending mixed signals. On one hand, it acknowledges the possibility of talks; on the other, it officially denies the existence of direct negotiations and maintains a relatively hardline public stance. It seems likely that informal discussions with the US may already be underway, but Tehran needs to “save face” domestically and among its allies, hence the conflicting messaging.
The positive reaction in equity markets suggests that investors continue to view a gradual de-escalation scenario as the main catalyst for a potential rebound. However, the outcome remains uncertain. The US appears to be negotiating from a position of strength, while Iran retains capabilities that can effectively raise the cost of the conflict for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Meanwhile, conditions in the fuel market remain tight. Shell has indicated that the first signs of supply disruptions may emerge in the European fuel market as early as April.
Source: xStation5
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