01:30 PM GMT, United States - Employment Data for November:
- Participation Rate: actual 62.5%; previous 62.4%;
- Nonfarm Payrolls: actual 64K; forecast 50K; previous 119K;
- Government Payrolls: actual -5.0K; previous 22.0K;
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls: actual 69K; previous 97K;
- Unemployment Rate: actual 4.6%; forecast 4.5%; previous 4.4%;
- Manufacturing Payrolls: actual -5K; previous -6K;
- Average Weekly Hours: actual 34.3; previous 34.2;
- Average Hourly Earnings: actual 3.5% YoY; previous 3.8% YoY;
- Average Hourly Earnings: actual 0.1% MoM; forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;
November’s jobs report showed another month of subdued labor-market momentum, with nonfarm payrolls rising only 64,000 and unemployment steady at 4.6%, little changed from September. Hiring remained concentrated in health care (+46k), construction (+28k), and social assistance (+18k), while transportation/warehousing (-18k) and the federal government (-6k) declined; federal employment had already plunged 162k in October, contributing to an estimated -105k October payroll print, though the BLS noted it cannot quantify the shutdown’s impact on October–November data.
Household data for October were not collected, and November’s household response rate was unusually low (64%). Labor-force participation and the employment-population ratio were stable, but the number of people working part-time for economic reasons jumped 909,000 since September. Wage growth was modest at 0.1% m/m, and payroll revisions lowered August–September employment by 33,000, reinforcing the picture of a labor market showing little net improvement since April.
Following the release, Fed funds futures modestly increased the probability of a January rate cut to ~31% (vs. 22% prior), while markets continue to price around 58 bps of easing in 2026.
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