The agreement reached between the USA and Iran brings euphoria to the stock market. The largest European indices are growing by around 1.5%. Some of them – including the Euro Stoxx 50 – are reaching new historical peaks. This strengthening is largely due to companies from the aviation and automotive sectors, which are unequivocally favored by lower crude oil prices.
Geopolitics
According to President Trump, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened after the agreement is signed by the parties on Friday. In the meantime, Iran will clear it of water mines.
This is key information for the markets. Crude oil futures contracts have fallen across the curve and anticipate a price level below 80 dollars by the end of the year.
Monetary Policy
Last week's speech by President Lagarde turned out to be surprisingly hawkish. She emphasized that the decision to raise rates is justified for every inflation projection – the one assuming significant escalation, the baseline scenario, and the scenario assuming de-escalation. She also stated that we are not in an environment where economic growth is absent or significantly threatened.
The increase in interest rate hike valuations resulting from the hawkish conference did not last long. The agreement reached between the USA and Iran brought down the prices of crude oil and gas, which limits inflationary concerns. The market fully prices in an upward move only in December, and this might soon change.
Macroeconomic Data
The release of April industrial production data is scheduled for today. However, we do not expect the reading to make a significant impact on the index. Not only is attention currently anchored on geopolitics, but the data is significantly delayed (US data for May is being published on the same day).
Technical Analysis
Figure 1: EU50 (13.06.2025 - 15.06.2026)
Source: xStation, 15.06.2026
After a deep correction that occurred at the turn of February and March, the chart returned to the upward trend, establishing a new historical peak today around 6270 points. The price is far above all designated moving averages (EMA 50, 100, 150), which are arranged in a pro-growth formation.
The RSI indicator is currently 63.7, suggesting that the market is strongly heated, but technically has not yet entered the extreme overbought zone (above the 70 level). The main MACD lines are high above zero, but the histogram bars are starting to shorten, which may suggest a slow loss of momentum.
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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
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