Daily summary: Wall Street recovers losses despite a surge in yields 🗽 Gold and silver retreat

Wall Street indices have recovered their initial losses, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 now down around 0.3%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose by nearly 8 basis points today to around 5.35%, its highest level since April 2002, but despite this, the equity market continues to show resilience.

• Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed that all 19 Fed officials supported the September rate hike, while most participants judged that another increase in 2026 would likely be appropriate. Many also pointed to persistent inflationary pressures and risk-management considerations as arguments in favor of tighter policy.
• Some participants assessed that the US economy remains stronger than previously expected, while the scale of AI-related investment continues to surprise to the upside. The Fed generally expects the labor market to remain stable, while several officials judged that the current level of interest rates is either only mildly restrictive or no longer meaningfully restrictive.
• Precious metals are under heavy pressure. Gold is down around 1.5%, silver is falling more than 2%, while platinum and palladium are losing around 4% to 5%. Bitcoin dropped to around $83,000 and is attempting to stabilize near that level. US Dollar Index futures have posted a strong advance, although they have given back part of the gains over the past few hours.
• The commodities market is mixed, with Brent crude futures (OIL) holding above $100 per barrel. US natural gas futures (NATGAS) are extending the rally that began at the start of the month, while European TTF gas futures (NATGAS.EU) have returned to levels not seen since September 21. Coffee and cocoa stand out with declines of more than 3%.
• During the US session, shares of industrial giant Caterpillar are down more than 5% after Truist cut its price target on the stock from $1,225 to $1,100 per share. The bank pointed to concerns over the durability of spending related to power generation, data centers and artificial intelligence, as well as the negative impact of high interest rates and rising diesel prices.
• Donald Trump reiterated that oil prices and interest rates should come down after the war ends, and added that he has a call with Putin scheduled. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, said that core inflation is approaching the Fed’s target and that elevated bond yields are a global phenomenon.
• On trade relations, Trump said that Canada has been a difficult negotiating partner, although it would like to reach a deal. He also referred to Switzerland, claiming that the US could save around $40 billion if it stopped buying Swiss watches.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that Tehran remains determined to defend its interests while also seeking to use diplomatic channels. Iran reportedly presented mediators with its conditions and considerations in the form of a formally structured proposal.
• According to reports, US-Iran talks have reached a stalemate, with further progress depending on Tehran’s response to Donald Trump’s demands regarding its nuclear program. The US side expects Iran to commit to not further developing its nuclear capabilities.

SILVER chart (D1 timeframe)

Silver is down around 3% today and has fallen below $60 per ounce for the first time since August 4. To move back above the 200-day exponential moving average, EMA200 (red line), which has acted as strong resistance twice in recent months, the metal would need to rise by roughly 15% from current levels toward around $67 per ounce. The RSI has fallen to 38, but it still remains above levels typically associated with oversold conditions.