Wednesday's trading session on the financial markets is dominated by anticipation ahead of the evening monetary policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Investors are heavily focused on the Federal Reserve economic projections and the press conference of the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh, which are set to determine the direction for the US dollar and global equity indices. The geopolitical situation remains stable amid the ongoing G7 Summit. Aside from the Fed decision, markets are digesting a series of crucial inflation readings from Europe (United Kingdom, Eurozone) alongside key retail sales data from the US, driving elevated volatility across pound and euro pairs as well as US Treasury yields.
Key publications from the Asian session
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Overnight, the central bank of Chile maintained interest rates at the current level of 4.50%.
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Data from New Zealand showed a smaller than expected current account deficit for the first quarter, which landed at -1.01 billion NZD.
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Mixed signals emerged from Japan, where the May trade balance missed expectations at -378.7 billion JPY, though export growth accelerated to 17% y/y and April machinery orders strongly rebounded by 8,7% m/m.
Kalendarz makroekonomiczny
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08:00 United Kingdom Inflation CPI m/m. Konsensus: 0,4%. Poprzedni odczyt: 0,7%.
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08:00 United Kingdom Core inflation CPI m/m. Konsensus: 0,4%. Poprzedni odczyt: 0,7%.
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08:00 United Kingdom Inflation CPI y/y. Konsensus: 3%. Poprzedni odczyt: 2,8%.
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08:00 United Kingdom Core inflation CPI y/y. Konsensus: 2,7%. Poprzedni odczyt: 2,5%.
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08:00 United Kingdom Inflation PPI m/m. Konsensus: 0,5%. Poprzedni odczyt: 1,5%.
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08:30 Hungary Wages y/y. Konsensus: brak danych. Poprzedni odczyt: 9,2%.
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09:00 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts. Konsensus: brak danych. Poprzedni odczyt: brak danych.
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09:00 Slovakia Inflation HICP y/y. Konsensus: 4,1%. Poprzedni odczyt: 4%.
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09:30 Sweden Interest rate decision. Konsensus: 1,75%. Poprzedni odczyt: 1,75%.
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11:00 Eurozone Final inflation HICP m/m. Konsensus: 1,0%. Poprzedni odczyt: 0,1%.
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11:00 Eurozone Final inflation HICP y/y. Konsensus: 3,0%. Poprzedni odczyt: 3,2%.
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13:00 USA Mortgage applications. Konsensus: brak danych. Poprzedni odczyt: 10,8%.
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14:30 USA Retail sales m/m. Konsensus: 0,5%. Poprzedni odczyt: 0,5%.
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14:30 USA Retail sales ex autos m/m. Konsensus: 0,7%. Poprzedni odczyt: 0,5%.
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14:30 Canada New housing price index m/m. Konsensus: -0,4%. Poprzedni odczyt: -0,1%.
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16:00 USA Pending home sales m/m. Konsensus: 1,4%. Poprzedni odczyt: 0,9%.
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16:00 USA Business inventories m/m. Konsensus: 0,9%. Poprzedni odczyt: 0,5%.
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16:30 USA Weekly crude oil inventories change. Konsensus: -7,23 mln brk. Poprzedni odczyt: -4,5 mln brk.
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20:00 USA FOMC Interest rate decision. Konsensus: 3,50-3,75%. Poprzedni odczyt: 3,50-3,75%.
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20:00 USA FOMC Economic projections. Konsensus: brak danych. Poprzedni odczyt: brak danych.
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20:30 USA FOMC Press conference. Konsensus: brak danych. Poprzedni odczyt: brak danych.
Earnings calendar
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Three markets to watch:
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EUR/USD – the major currency pair will react with heightened volatility to both the final CPI inflation data from the Eurozone and the evening Fed statement, alongside the tone of Kevin Warsh commentary.
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GBP/USD – the morning batch of consumer and producer inflation data from the United Kingdom will determine the short-term trend for the British pound ahead of the evening decisions in the US.
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Gold (XAU/USD) – the precious metal remains extremely sensitive to hawkish or dovish shifts in the new FOMC economic projections (the dot plot) and changes in US debt yields.
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