Thursday's session will be driven primarily by the release of key macroeconomic data from the United States, which may set the direction for the dollar, bonds and equity indices. The main focus will be the PCE inflation report – the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of price growth – both in headline and core terms. At the same time, investors will receive the final reading of first-quarter economic growth, data on Americans' income and spending, and the weekly number of initial jobless claims.
This set of releases should provide a clearer picture of the condition of the US economy and the persistence of inflationary pressure. Stronger-than-expected data could limit expectations for swift interest rate cuts by the Fed, while weaker readings could support the case for a more dovish monetary policy path. Given the concentration of several important releases at 14:30, elevated volatility can be expected across most asset classes.
Economic calendar
06:00 AM GMT – Japan: Leading indicator, final – forecast: –, previous: 0.5
07:45 AM GMT – France: Consumer confidence – forecast: 83, previous: 82
08:00 AM GMT – Spain: HICP inflation YoY – forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.7%
08:00 AM GMT – Spain: GDP QoQ – forecast: 0.6%, previous: 0.6%
09:00 AM GMT – Italy: Industrial production MoM – forecast: –
10:00 AM GMT – United Kingdom: 7-year gilt auction, yield – forecast: –, previous: 4.419%
10:00 AM GMT – United Kingdom: 7-year gilt auction, bid-to-cover – forecast: –, previous: 3.6
11:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: ECB data on CB loans – forecast: -40bn EUR, previous: -46bn EUR
01:30 PM GMT – United States: PCE Price Index YoY – forecast: 3.8%, previous: 4.1%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: PCE Price Index MoM – forecast: 0.4%, previous: 0.5%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Initial jobless claims – forecast: 226k, previous: 225k
01:30 PM GMT – United States: GDP, final annualized QoQ reading – forecast: 1.8%, previous: 1.6%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Durable goods orders – forecast: 8.0%, previous: -5.0%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Core PCE Price Index YoY – forecast: 3.3%, previous: 3.4%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Core PCE Price Index MoM – forecast: 0.2%, previous: 0.31%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Consumer spending MoM – forecast: 0.5%, previous: 0.6%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: GDP price deflator, final reading – forecast: 3.5%, previous: 3.5%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Personal income MoM – forecast: 0.0%, previous: 0.4%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Real personal consumption MoM – forecast: 0.1%, previous: 0.2%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: GDP deflator, final reading – forecast: 3.5%, previous: 3.5%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Core durable goods orders – forecast: 1.1%, previous: 0.6%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Core PCE Price Index, final reading – forecast: 4.4%, previous: 4.4%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: Continuing jobless claims – forecast: 1.810mn, previous: 1.801mn
01:30 PM GMT – United States: PCE Price Index, final reading – forecast: 4.5%, previous: 4.5%
01:30 PM GMT – United States: EIA natural gas storage change – forecast: 73bn cubic feet, previous: 69bn cubic feet
04:00 PM GMT – United States: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index – forecast: 9, previous: 7
04:00 PM GMT – United States: Kansas City Fed Composite Index – forecast: 8, previous: 6
Central bankers speeches
10:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: ECB's Philip Lane speaks
11:00 AM GMT – Eurozone: ECB's Isabel Schnabel speaks
01:00 PM GMT – Eurozone: ECB's Piero Cipollone speaks
07:40 PM GMT - United States: Fed's Williams
Source: xStation5
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