Economic Calendar: The Central Bank Festival in Full Swing

The central bank festival is in full swing. This week has been dominated from the very beginning by decisions and communication from the world’s major monetary authorities. It started with the Bank of Japan, then markets digested the FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve’s message, and today the focus shifts to Europe, where the ECB and the Bank of England complete a packed sequence of key events. This is a rare setup in which monetary policy decisions from several major economies cluster within a very short time frame, forcing markets into continuous reassessment of expectations.

In this kind of environment, macro data is no longer just statistics. Every inflation print, growth figure, or labor market release becomes a puzzle piece that either reinforces or challenges the central bank narrative. The key question for markets remains whether disinflation is truly stable or whether economies are entering a more uneven phase where growth and price dynamics diverge.

Today’s calendar is particularly dense in Europe, with inflation, GDP, and labor market data arriving from multiple economies simultaneously, all alongside ECB and Bank of England decisions. At the same time, US data continues to serve as the global benchmark for rate expectations.

Economic calendar for today:

07:30 – France

• GDP s.a. (q/q, Q1): 0.0% vs 0.2% / 0.2%
• Consumer spending (m/m): 0.7% vs 0.6% / -1.4%

08:00 – Germany

• Retail sales (m/m): -0.5% / -0.6%
• Retail sales (y/y): 0.4% / 0.7%
• Import prices (m/m): 2.5% / 0.3%
• Import prices (y/y): -2.3%

08:30 – Hungary

• GDP s.a. (q/q): 0.2%
• GDP n.s.a. (y/y): 1.0% vs 0.8%
• GDP s.a. (y/y): 0.6%
• Trade balance: EUR 665m

08:45 – France

• CPI (y/y): 2.0% vs 1.7%
• HICP (y/y): 2.2% vs 2.0%
• CPI (m/m): 0.9% vs 1.0%
• PPI (y/y): -2.4%

09:00 – Czech Republic

• GDP s.a. (q/q): 0.5% vs 0.7%
• GDP s.a. (y/y): 2.5% vs 2.7%

09:00 – Spain

• GDP (q/q): 0.5% vs 0.8%
• GDP (y/y): 2.7% vs 2.7%

09:00 – Switzerland

• KOF: 96 vs 96.1

09:00 – Turkey

• Trade balance: -USD 9.03bn

09:30 – Poland

• CPI (y/y): 2.9% vs 3.0%
• CPI (m/m): 0.4% vs 1.1%

09:55 – Germany

• Unemployment rate: 6.3% in line with expectations

10:00 – Germany

• GDP (q/q): 0.2% vs 0.3%
• GDP (y/y): 0.4% vs 0.6%

10:00 – Italy

• GDP (q/q): 0.1% vs 0.3%
• GDP (y/y): 0.6% vs 0.8%
• Unemployment rate: 5.3%

Eurozone (key data)
11:00

• HICP inflation (y/y): 2.9% vs 2.6%
• Core HICP (y/y): 2.3% vs 2.3%
• GDP (q/q): 0.2% vs 0.2%
• GDP (y/y): 0.8% vs 1.2%
• Unemployment rate: 6.2%

14:15 – ECB

• Refinancing rate: 2.15% (unchanged)
• Deposit rate: 2.00% (unchanged)

14:45 / 16:15

• ECB press conference
• Christine Lagarde speech

United Kingdom (BoE)
13:00

• Interest rate: 3.75% (unchanged)

United States – key releases
14:30

• Consumer spending: 0.9% vs 0.5%
• PCE core (y/y): 3.2% vs 3.0%
• GDP (annualized): 2.3% vs 0.5%
• GDP deflator: 3.8% vs 3.7%
• PCE core (q/q): 4.1% vs 2.7%
• Income: 0.3%
• Jobless claims: 214k
• ECI: 0.8% vs 0.7%

15:45

• Chicago PMI: 53 vs 52.8

16:00

• Leading indicators: -0.1%

16:30

• Natural gas storage change: 83bn vs 103bn