EIA data points to a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories; OPEC+ decision in focus

OPEC+ decision due on Sunday – what should we expect?

OPEC+ is most likely to leave its October production policy unchanged. According to Reuters sources, Sunday’s meeting is expected to focus primarily on assessing market conditions rather than introducing new supply decisions. The group is currently completing the rollback of a 1.65 million barrel-per-day production cut introduced in 2023. In theory, this means more oil returning to the market, but in practice actual output continues to lag behind formal quotas.

• The gap between quotas and actual production is now crucial. Conflicts and export disruptions linked to Iran and Ukraine are constraining supply, leaving OPEC+ with less control over the real increase in global production than headline quota decisions might suggest.
• From a market perspective, this means that the absence of a new OPEC+ decision does not automatically have to be bearish for oil prices. If physical supply remains constrained by geopolitics, higher production limits may matter less for the overall market balance.
• Increasing attention is shifting toward 2027 production quotas. Group members are currently reviewing their production capacity, laying the groundwork for potentially difficult negotiations over the future allocation of output limits.
• This matters because some producers have invested in expanding capacity and may push for higher quotas, while others may seek to defend their current share of the group’s total production.
• The key takeaway for the oil market is therefore that Sunday’s meeting may be relatively neutral for prices, while the real internal tensions within OPEC+ could emerge later, when new production baselines and 2027 quotas are negotiated.

Oil futures chart (OIL), D1 interval

Oil has moved back above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to a genuine return of bullish momentum. From a price action perspective, the key resistance zone is around $98–100, while support is located near $85, additionally reinforced by the 200-day EMA (red line). In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain more sensitive to actual export volumes, developments in Iran and Ukraine, and global demand than to the absence of any change in official OPEC+ policy.