Oil has gained ground amid geopolitical tensions as Russia halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria until payments in Rouble are made, while hopes of Chinese economic stimulus buoyed the demand outlook. We are currently facing an event driven market combined with a risk-off sentiment. However, the technical situation seems to suggest that further gains may be challenging given the technical barriers to overcome
Ichimoku analysis :
Taking a look at the chart using ichimoku, one can notice that the bulls managed to break through the psychological barrier at $100 and enter the ichimoku cloud in the H4 interval (yellow cloud). However, the gains were halted by the daily cloud (gray cloud), overlaid on the H4 chart. The daily cloud is a strong resistance that will need to be breached in order to consider further upside.
In this context, a decline is the basic scenario, which will be confirmed if prices break out from the bottom of the H4 cloud. In this case, prices could tackle the uptrend line near $96 a barrel. If this support breaks, the next main support can be found at $93.20 per barrel, which corresponds to the local low of April 11
On the other hand, only a breakout of the daily cloud, and the bearish line linking the local highs would allow for further rises towards the April 18 highs at $109 a barrel.
OIL.WTI, H4 interval, Source : xStation5
Reda Aboutika, XTB France
Bond Markets Sell Off❗️TNOTE Dips Below 1-Year Low 📉
Market Wrap: Stocks and metals dip as Trump-Xi summit fails to break Iran deadlock 📉 (15.05.2026)
Morning Wrap: Trump and Xi shape markets. AI drives record highs while Iran and geopolitics dampen sentiment
BREAKING: Natural gas (NATGAS) prices are rising following the release of EIA data from the U.S.
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
