Morning wrap (03.12.2025)

Tuesday’s Wall Street session ended with a mild rebound, and futures on major indices continue to rise as investors await today’s US ADP employment report (US2000, US100, US500, US30: ~+0.2%; EU50: ~+0.05%).

Relief came partially from US retail data. The National Retail Federation reported record Black Friday turnout — 202.9 million shoppers over five days. The result beat forecasts, signalling strong consumer engagement and resilient demand despite a tight labour market.

Donald Trump referred to White House chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett as a “potential Fed chair”. The US president previously said he would announce Powell’s successor in early 2026. Hassett remains Trump’s closest ally among the speculated candidates, and combined with White House pressure for monetary easing, this is weighing on the dollar at the start of the session.

Sentiment in Asia-Pacific remains cautious ahead of key US labour and inflation data. Losses are led by Chinese equities (CHN.cash: –1.2%; HK.cash: –0.9%), where mood is weighed by slowing services growth, pressure on Beijing to support the property sector and credit troubles at major developer Vanke. JP225 rebounds 0.5% after recent selling, while AU200.cash slips 0.1% after weaker-than-expected GDP.

China’s services PMI exceeded expectations (52.1 vs 52 expected, 52.6 prior), indicating steady but slightly slower sector growth. Export orders improved on better global sentiment, and domestic demand remains stable. However, employment continues to fall and input prices have risen for nine consecutive months, squeezing already thin margins.

Australia’s Q3 GDP rose less than expected (0.4% q/q vs 0.7% expected and prior). The reading was weighed down by higher exports and lower inventories, though GDP remains supported by solid private consumption and investment. Data also confirmed broad price pressures, supporting the AUD via more hawkish RBA expectations and improved terms of trade.

The dollar is falling for a fourth straight session, driven by Trump’s remarks on Hassett and growing market conviction about a December Fed cut (USDIDX: –0.15%). Sterling leads gains (GBPUSD, GBPCAD: +0.23%), with Antipodean currencies also strong (AUDUSD, NZDUSD: +0.24%). EURUSD rises 0.17% to 1.164.

Silver ticks down 0.8%, returning to USD 58/oz after seven straight days of gains. Gold trades flat near USD 4,210/oz.

Brent and WTI recover 0.3% after yesterday’s drop. NATGAS rebounds 1.9%.

Bitcoin gains for a second session (+1.3% to USD 93,100), and Ethereum rises 1.4% to USD 3,064.