- Futures contracts on European and American indices indicate mixed trading, which is a direct result of the weak sentiment prevailing during the Asian session.
- The RBA kept the rate at 3.60% as expected, and the decision and statement were relatively balanced, which initially pushed AUD/USD down.
- Bullock's statements gave a hawkish tone, emphasising that the scenario assumes either a long pause or increases, with no room for reductions, and pointing to the February meeting as crucial in terms of new inflation data. The market is already pricing in almost two increases for 2026.
- The US Department of Commerce is soon to allow the export of Nvidia's H200 chip to China, according to the Semafor portal, citing a person close to the matter (source: Reuters). Nvidia shares gained approximately 2.5% yesterday on this news.
- Paramount Skydance has made a counteroffer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $108.4 billion, surpassing Netflix's earlier offer of $72 billion. WBD and Paramount shares rose (by 3.5% and 8%, respectively), while Netflix lost about 4%. Paramount was prompted to submit a fully financed and simplified offer by the antitrust risks of the Netflix and WBD merger, which were even highlighted by the US president.
- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi clearly signals the authorities' growing concern about the weakness of the yen, emphasising their readiness to take "appropriate action" on the FX market if necessary.
- Kazuo Ueda, in turn, confirms that the BoJ's scenario is beginning to materialise: real interest rates remain very low, the labour market is tightening, and wage and price pressures are rising, paving the way for further reductions in the scale of easing. The market considers the December decision to be practically a foregone conclusion, and the discussion is shifting to how quickly and how far the BoJ will normalise its policy in 2026.
- On the broad FX market, the aforementioned Australian dollar is performing best following the RBA's decision and Bullock's comments. On the other hand, the Japanese yen is clearly weak. The EURUSD pair is gaining slightly this morning and stabilising in the 1.1650 zone.
- At present, we are seeing widespread weakness in the commodities market, which is a continuation of yesterday's decline. OIL.WTI is currently down 0.4%, while NATGAS is down 0.95%. At the same time, GOLD prices are down 0.17% and SILVER prices are down 0.25%.
- The crypto market is also dominated by moderate weakness. BTC is currently down 1.13% and trading below £90,000.
- During the European session, the only publication on the calendar is the German trade balance, which should have no significance for either the market or the ECB. During the American session, the most important events will be the weekly ADP data and the JOLTS report. However, it seems that investors are most eagerly awaiting tomorrow's Fed decision and next week's NFP and CPI reports.
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