U.S. Banks Kick Off Earnings. What Can We Expect? 📊

Upcoming U.S. Bank Earnings Season

The U.S. financial earnings season is just beginning, with the first reports coming from the largest banks. After an exceptionally strong 2025, when the banking sector reached near-historic records in profits and revenues, markets are entering this period with high expectations and a sharp focus on details. The past year demonstrated that banks can successfully combine several favorable factors simultaneously. Strong investment banking activity and advisory services boosted fee income, while a rising number of mergers and acquisitions and high trading volumes drove revenue growth. Net interest income (NII), the difference between interest earned on loans and the cost of deposits, remained stable, providing a solid foundation for operational performance.

After U.S. bank stocks rose by 30–50% in 2025, investors are approaching the earnings season with significant expectations. The high comparison base means that any disappointment could trigger a sharp market reaction, while exceeding forecasts will require not only strong operational results but also a clear and positive message from management regarding revenue and profitability prospects. Market consensus anticipates EPS growth of approximately 8% year over year and a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.40%. Equally important, the results from banks such as JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will provide early insights into the health of U.S. consumers.

Current Trends

The most notable trend in the sector is the continued growth in investment banking and trading revenues. Banks handling the largest mergers and acquisitions benefit from rising transaction fees, and the share of these segments in total revenue continues to increase.

The second key factor remains net interest income (NII), the difference between interest earned on loans, credit, and investments and interest paid to customers on deposits and other liabilities. A stable and growing NII in 2025 was driven by an expanding loan portfolio and favorable market conditions.

The third trend is maintaining a high-quality loan portfolio. Despite rising consumer and corporate debt, banks have kept non-performing loan ratios low and capital adequacy strong, allowing them to safely invest in strategic business segments.

Market Sentiment

Currently, investors remain positive but cautious. Shares of major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have risen by several tens of percent in recent months, approaching historic highs. Even minor earnings disappointments could trigger a price correction.

Consensus for the Banking Sector

Analysts expect most of the largest banks to report year-over-year revenue and EPS growth in Q4 2025. Drivers will include higher net interest income, increased investment banking activity, and maintenance of a high-quality loan portfolio. The high comparison base means that exceeding expectations will require solid operational results and a clear message from management.

What Will Each Bank Show?

JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chase is considered the bellwether of the banking sector. Market consensus expects EPS around $4.91 and revenue of $46.17 billion. The bank has a strong position in both investment and consumer banking, making its results closely watched. Growth is supported by stable net interest income and activity in trading and mergers & acquisitions. Operational efficiency and cost control demonstrate JPMorgan’s ability to maintain high profitability even amid market volatility. Management guidance on future lending plans and investment strategy will be key for market reactions.

Bank of America
Bank of America is among the largest beneficiaries of NII growth in 2025. Consensus estimates EPS of $0.96 with revenue of $27.55 billion. The bank continues to focus on corporate and commercial banking, with increased transaction volume driving revenue growth. Operational efficiency improvements, including administrative cost reductions and digitalization, increase the likelihood of exceeding forecasts. Investors will also monitor loan portfolio quality, which is critical amid potential interest rate hikes or economic volatility.

Citigroup
Citigroup is still undergoing a transformation, and the upcoming quarter will be a major test of its strategy. Consensus expects EPS around $1.78 and revenue of $20.55 billion. Growth will be supported by expansion in investment banking and corporate advisory, increasingly important sources of revenue. Maintaining high margins in strategic segments and balancing stable income with investments in technology and new products will be closely watched by investors.

Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo projects EPS of $1.66 with revenue of $21.6 billion. After a period of rebuilding and operational improvements, the bank is focusing on steady growth from transaction fees and consumer services. Maintaining a high-quality loan portfolio is crucial, as even a slight increase in credit risk could impact results. Investors will also monitor digitalization efforts and improvements in customer experience, which could increase mid-term revenues.

Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs may maintain EPS close to last year’s level, with consensus at $11.62 and revenue of $14.5 billion. While benefiting from a high comparison base, its strong position in investment banking and wealth management provides opportunities for further growth in fees and commissions. Trading performance, M&A transaction impact, and management guidance on investment strategy and dividends will influence investor perception.

Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley expects an EPS increase of around 8% year over year to $2.41, with revenue of $17.72 billion. Stable wealth management income and a strong investment segment support steady results. Additionally, digital services and asset management expansion could boost fee income. Operational efficiency, cost control, and a stable loan portfolio enhance the likelihood of meeting or exceeding investor expectations.

Key Takeaways

• Results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will provide insights into consumer health, loan growth, and market sentiment.

• Analysis of investment banking, trading, and advisory performance will show which banks are best leveraging favorable market conditions.

• Maintaining a high-quality loan portfolio and operational efficiency is critical for exceeding forecasts and ensuring long-term stability.

• Net interest income (NII) remains a key driver, reflecting banks’ ability to profit from lending and deposit activities.

• The upcoming earnings season will reveal whether 2025 was an exceptional year or the beginning of a new phase of sustained growth in the U.S. banking sector.