Summary of NFIB data for March
- NFIB Optimism Index: down 3 points to 95.8 (below the historical average of 98), vs. 97.9 expected and 98.8 previously
- Uncertainty Index: increased to 92 (well above the historical norm of 68)
- Business profitability: sharpest deterioration – balance fell 11 points to -25%
- Business expectations: third consecutive decline, to 11% (lowest since October 2024)
- Labor market:
- Employment Index declined to 101.6 (still above historical averages)
- Wage pressures are easing (fewer firms raising or planning wage increases)
- Investment and activity:
- Capital expenditure plans: 16% of firms (lowest since 2009)
- Sales: balance fell to -5% (ending a four-month improvement trend)
- Inventories: decline in investment plans (also -5%)
- Costs and prices:
- Rising oil prices → margin pressure and cost pass-through
- Actual prices are rising (25%), but planned increases are declining → signal of weakening demand
- Supply chains:
- 62% of firms report disruptions (increase m/m)
- Disruptions are predominantly moderate and mild
- Business conditions assessment:
- Decline in “good” ratings, increase in “fair” → erosion in growth quality
NFIB data indicate that the economy is entering a cost-driven cooling phase. Weakening investment and expectations point to downside risks for growth in the coming quarters—consistent with the recent decline in U.S. GDP estimates. The labor market remains relatively stable for now, but leading indicators are already deteriorating.
Source: xStation5
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