US OPEN: Geopolitics and earnings set the market’s pace

The opening of Monday’s U.S. session is taking place under the shadow of a (at this point still largely presumed) escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. index futures are reacting with moderate declines, keeping losses to a maximum of 0.5%.

Larger moves can be seen in the bond and oil markets. Bond yields are rising along the medium-term segment (1–5 years) by nearly 1%, oil is (temporarily) up 3%, and Brent is moving above USD 111 per barrel.

Iran’s FARS news agency reported that it had struck an unidentified type of U.S. warship with two missiles, allegedly as the vessel attempted to force its way through the strait. In response, an unnamed U.S. administration official told Axios that no such attack took place.

All of this is unfolding in the context of “Project Freedom,” announced on Sunday by D. Trump - a military operation intended, in a still not precisely specified manner, to create conditions for military escort of commercial ships through the strait.

Macroeconomic data

The Census Bureau will publish today, half an hour after the session opens, U.S. durable goods orders and factory orders for March.

• The market expects the annualized change in durable goods orders to improve from -1.2% to 0.8%.
• Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.5% versus 0% a month earlier.

US100 (D1)

The index remains in a very steep uptrend and is hovering near all-time highs. RSI is rising into overbought territory (76). If sellers regain the initiative, the first strong support would be the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Source: xStation5

Company news

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB.US): The company associated with legendary Warren Buffett released its first results under new CEO Greg Abel. It beat market expectations, posting USD 7.878 in earnings per share and USD 93.68 billion in revenue. Cash rose to USD 397.38 billion, and share buybacks totaled USD 234 million. The stock shows little reaction.
• GameStop (GME.US): Shares are up more than 6% in pre-market trading after the company announced an acquisition offer for the e-commerce platform “eBay” worth USD 56 billion (a premium versus the market valuation of around 20%). eBay shares are up more than 7% in pre-market trading.
• Palantir (PLTR.US): The company will report Q1 2026 results after the close. The market expects year-over-year EPS to rise to about USD 0.28 and revenue above USD 1.5 billion.
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH.US): The cruise operator issued disappointing guidance for Q2 and for full-year results. The stock is down more than 7%, weighing on the entire sector.
• Celcuity (CELC.US): The biotech company is up by the mid-teens after publishing results from the next phase of trials for its breast cancer drug.