US Open: Nasdaq tries to recover loses 🗽 Fair Isaac shares in panic

Wall Street opened Tuesday’s session without a clear direction, with the Nasdaq 100 up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and DJIA are slightly lower. Investors remain cautious ahead of a series of important U.S. macroeconomic releases. The coming days will bring key data on the labor market and consumer activity, including consumer confidence indicators, as markets look for signs of whether the U.S. economy is genuinely losing momentum into year-end.

• Tensions remain elevated in the bond market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.25%, while September remains a very weak month for Treasuries, although historical seasonality suggests October has often been more supportive for bonds.
• U.S. data came in weaker than expected: JOLTS job openings rose to 7.079 million versus 7.228 million expected and 7.271 million previously, while the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 from 89.4, below the 89.0 forecast.
• At the same time, the oil market remains an important source of risk for inflation and sentiment. Brent futures are holding near $95 per barrel, while investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.
• Geopolitical risk linked to the Middle East conflict also remains in the background. Donald Trump once again suggested that he is trying to reach an agreement, but his comments have done little to reduce market scepticism over the prospect of a quick end to hostilities.
• Among individual stocks, CarMax is outperforming after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter results. AstraZeneca is also gaining after announcing a deal worth up to $2 billion related to cooperation on a new oncology treatment.
• On the weaker side, Fair Isaac came under pressure after reports that the U.S. housing regulator plans to change the way mortgage pricing and credit-scoring models are used, raising concerns about the company’s future market position.
• Friday’s labor-market data will be particularly important. A weaker report could strengthen expectations for a more dovish Fed stance, while stronger data could keep upward pressure on Treasury yields.
• Investors will also closely follow comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Austan Goolsbee and Christopher Waller, for additional clues on inflation, the labor market, and the future path of interest rates.

US100 Chart (H1 Interval)

Source: xStation5

Among the largest Nasdaq 100 companies, the technology sector is clearly leading today’s gains, with Lumentum, ARM, Applied Materials, and KLA at the top of the table. On the weaker side are Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, and Cadence Design Systems, although their one-day declines remain relatively modest compared with their earlier gains. Walmart, Intuitive Surgical, and Autodesk are also underperforming and remain under pressure over longer time horizons as well. Overall, the market picture is mixed, but there is a clear rotation of capital toward selected technology and semiconductor stocks.

Source: XTB Research

U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens Sharply

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 in September from 88.6 a month earlier, while economists had expected an increase to 89. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024, while perceptions of the labor market also deteriorated. Looking ahead, households expect both business conditions and employment to weaken over the next six months, while expectations for household income growth have also become less optimistic.

JPMorgan Downgrades XPeng

XPeng shares fell 4.2% on Tuesday, reaching a 52-week low of $9.51, after JPMorgan downgraded the stock from “overweight” to “neutral.” The bank remains cautious on the broader Chinese auto sector, citing weaker demand, rising input costs, and persistent structural challenges that could continue to weigh on the industry into 2027. JPMorgan also noted that while XPeng is developing advanced AI technologies for its vehicles, investors may be reluctant to assign significant value to those initiatives until they begin making a direct contribution to earnings.

Company News

• Fair Isaac (FICO) is an analytics and technology company best known for its FICO credit-scoring models, which are widely used by banks and the U.S. mortgage market. Shares fell 18% after the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced plans to simplify mortgage pricing and combine FICO Classic and VantageScore within a single pricing grid, which the market viewed as a potential threat to FICO’s competitive position.
• Summit Therapeutics is a biotechnology company developing cancer treatments, including ivonescimab and sonesitatug vedotin. Shares surged 18% after AstraZeneca announced a $2 billion investment and a strategic clinical collaboration, strengthening the perceived credibility and commercial potential of Summit’s pipeline.
• Bloomin’ Brands is a restaurant operator that owns chains including Outback Steakhouse and focuses on the casual dining segment. Shares gained 5% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock from “underweight” to “neutral,” citing operational improvements such as menu changes and a reduction in the number of tables assigned to each server during peak hours.

Fair Isaac (FICO.US) Share Price Chart, D1 Interval

Source: xStation5