US stock indices have reached new all-time highs, driven by growing investor belief that the US–Iran conflict may soon de-escalate, energy prices could stabilize, and the Fed may return to a slightly more dovish stance. The S&P 500 rose by 0.8% and, for the first time in history, closed above the 7,000-point level yesterday, while today the Nasdaq 100 (US100) contract is up nearly 0.2%, setting a new record by surpassing 24,400 points.
- The main driver of the rally is the largest technology companies, whose pre-market gains were fueled by strong results from Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC. Optimism surrounding potential US–Iran peace talks has lowered oil prices and increased appetite for risk assets, including equities.
- The market is awaiting further updates on the progress of negotiations, which could sustain the upward trend. Financial results from major banks (Bank of America, Morgan Stanley) exceeded expectations both in terms of revenue and profits.
- The strong short-term rally in the S&P 500 (around 10% in 11 days) is a rare historical event and sends mixed signals for the future. However, historical data suggests moderate returns in the short term but potentially higher ones over the longer horizon.
- Today, a potential catalyst for renewed optimism could be Netflix’s earnings report for Q1 2026, to be released after the session. A key fundamental support for equities remains the strong condition of US public companies. The start of this earnings season can be considered very successful.
US100 (D1 interval)
Source: xStation5
Source: Yahoo Finance
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