The latest EIA report delivers a surprisingly bearish signal for crude, even as geopolitical tensions remain high.
-
Unexpected Crude Build (+5,451K): This is the second consecutive large build, which is difficult to reconcile with the massive disruptions in the Middle East.
-
Shrinking Product Stocks: Despite the crude surplus, gasoline (-2,593K) and distillates (-1,032K) continue to draw down faster than expected. This indicates that while raw supply is increasing in the U.S., refined products are still in high demand.
-
Geopolitical Pivot: The price drop is largely driven by speculation that Trump may announce a de-escalation or a shift in policy regarding Iran tonight.
The market is at a crossroads. The physical data shows a growing U.S. crude surplus, yet eyes remain fixed on the war. If the "geopolitical premium" evaporates due to diplomatic shifts, the current surplus could accelerate the price correction toward the $75–$80 target suggested by the term structure.
The price of crude oil is not responding heavily on the data from the EIA report, although it halted declines from the previous severals minutes. The price is slightly below 100 USD per barrel and investors await the Trump speach in the evening US time which may spur another big moves on the price.
🔴US100 Caps Gains Following Trump's Comments
BREAKING: U.S. retail sales above expectations! EUR/USD is gaining!
Market Wrap: European stocks join the bullish rally 🚀 Euro Stoxx +3%
BREAKING: Eurozone PMI stronger than expected 📈 EURUSD gains
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
