A blue wave was expected, but it turned into a blue tsunami...
Democrats swiftly secured a majority in both houses of Congress, winning key Senate races (Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan). Indications point to a final Senate seat distribution of 55-45.
Vote counting is still underway in Alaska and Mississippi, where Democratic candidate Scott Colom holds an unexpected lead at the moment. Should Democrats win both states, the seat distribution would reach 56-44.
Chart 1: Distribution of seats in the US Senate
Source: 270-to-win, 04.11.2026 (9:01)
Elections in numbers
According to exit polls, Democrats made gains across virtually every demographic group compared to the 2024 election. The most dramatic surge in popular vote support came from voters aged 18-29 by a staggering 35 percentage points.
Chart 2: Shift in voter preferences by demographic group (2026 vs. 2024)
Source: XTB Research, Edison Research/NEP, 04.11.2026
Preliminary estimates by The New York Times suggest the Democratic lead in the popular vote will reach approximately 13 percentage points. A margin of this magnitude has not been seen since 1974-1976 and the aftermath of the Watergate scandal.
Chart 3: Popular vote margin in US House elections (1942–2026)
Source: XTB Research, Office of the Clerk, The New York Times, 04.11.2026
The disparity in voter mobilization is equally striking. In numerous congressional districts across Texas, Ohio, and West Virginia, the number of votes cast by Republican supporters fell by up to 40% compared to 2024. Among Democratic voters, the drop was only a few percentage points, a rare phenomenon, given that midterm elections typically generate substantially less engagement than presidential races.
Stock market reaction
From a market standpoint, gubernatorial results across individual states carry significant weight, most notably Gina Hinojosa's unexpected victory in Texas. This introduces considerable risk of a slowdown or halt in data center construction across what has traditionally been a deep-red state.
Table 1: Who uses Texas data centers?
Source: XTB Research, 04.11.2026
The SOXX index, tracking key semiconductor companies, is holding up surprisingly well, gaining roughly 1.6% in after-hours trading. This is largely driven by AMD (+7.8%), which reported impressive quarterly results yesterday. CoreWeave is trading down 2.7%. Modest declines are also being logged by Alphabet (-0.1%) and Microsoft (-0.3%).
Notably, among today’s steepest decliners are Tesla (-4.3%) and SpaceX (-3.5%). Elon Musk committed nearly $450 million to funding Republican efforts, with a substantial portion allocated to Paxton’s disastrous campaign in Texas.
Chart 4: Top individual donors in the US midterm elections (2026)
Source: XTB Research, SEC, 04.11.2026
Conversely, sectors positioned to benefit from significant regulatory backing under Democrats are gaining ground. US Healthcare Providers is up 0.9% in after-hours trading.
Looking at the broader market, the scenario outlined during yesterday's election night coverage with XTB is playing out. Indices initially reacted with very minor dips, which have already been completely erased. The Dow Jones is even up nearly 0.5%, supported by expected tailwinds for US consumers and the retail sector driven by Democratic proposals aimed at lowering living costs and protecting household disposable income.
Other assets
US 10-year Treasury yields are recording a modest decline from yesterday’s local peak (down roughly 4 bps to 4.92%). Investors appear cautious regarding the trajectory of fiscal policy in this new political landscape. Historically, Democratic victories over Republicans signaled looser fiscal policy. This time, however, given the sheer scale of Donald Trump's spending, the outcome may well differ.
The US dollar is weakening by approximately 0.5%, both against the euro and on a trade-weighted basis. Pressure on the greenback is likely fueled by expectations of fiscal gridlock and potential government shutdowns. Clashes over raising the $41.1 trillion debt ceiling, a threshold the US is rapidly approaching, are also highly probable.
Chart 5: Cumulative US public debt (1965–2026)
Source: XTB Research, FRED, 04.11.2026
Capitalizing on dollar weakness and earlier soft sentiment on Wall Street, gold is up 2.5%, once again breaking through the psychological barrier of $4,000 per ounce.
Chart 6: Gold (09.2026–11.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 04.11.2026
Daily Summary: Chips lift Wall Street on Election Day, oil drops amid progress in negotiations (03.11.2026)
US Open: Lower oil prices boost indices, markets await Midterms results (03.11.2026)
Chart of the Day: Brent crude falls despite Trump's words about no desire to negotiate
Economic Calendar - Global series of industrial PMI indicators and tech giants' results
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