Coffee futures on ICE (COFFEE) are rebounding after a series of sharp declines. Arabica prices in New York gained on renewed concerns about drought conditions in Brazil, even as robusta traded in London came under pressure again due to the return of dry weather and the resumption of harvesting in Dak Lak, Vietnam. The coffee contract has now risen for three consecutive sessions, supported by fears of drought in Brazil; in Minas Gerais, rainfall currently stands at just 49% of the historical average.
- U.S. tariffs on Brazil removed — the 40% duty on Brazilian coffee imports has been lifted, which may boost exports to the world’s largest consumer market.
- The market remains in deficit — low arabica inventories and tight supply support long-term fundamentals.
- La Niña in the background — investors must factor in potential weather-related impacts on upcoming harvests.
- Certified stocks rebound — ICE Arabica stocks climbed above 405,000 bags, though they remain near multi-year lows.
Source: xStation5
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