Dailu summary: Sell-off on Wall street 📉 Bitcoin and Ethereum extend downfall in panic

• The U.S. technology sector is seeing a sharp sell-off today, pushing the Nasdaq 100 down more than 2%. S&P 500 futures (US500) are off by nearly 1.7%, slipping to around 6,900 points. Among Big Tech, Nvidia and Microsoft are leading the declines (down over 3%), while the IT services segment is performing particularly poorly. In contrast, banks, defense stocks, and oil and gas producers are trading higher.
• Software names are under pressure following Anthropic’s move into an application-layer expansion for Claude. Investors fear more similar solutions could appear in the near term, disrupting business models across the software industry, limiting growth potential, and potentially driving customer churn. Shares of Intuit, Salesforce, and ServiceNow are among the biggest decliners today, in most cases extending an already steep sell-off that has been underway for months.
• The weakness in tech has also spilled over into “hardware.” GPU-related names such as Broadcom are down more than 6%, while memory suppliers are also weak, with Micron down more than 4%. Notably, Palantir is bucking the broader sell-off after strong results and is up nearly 6%. Walmart is up about 2.5% and has crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time in its history. PepsiCo is also up more than 3% following its earnings report.
• Oil’s reaction to reports that an Iranian Shahed-139 drone was shot down by a U.S. Navy F-35 was limited. Crude is modestly higher and back above $67 per barrel. The U.S. said the current schedule of negotiations with Iran remains unchanged and that the decision to shoot down the drone was appropriate.
• Gold is up more than 5% and silver nearly 10%, with precious metals clearly attempting to recover recent losses and, so far, holding up better than U.S. equities. The U.S. dollar is stabilizing and slightly lower after several days of gains, which is helping sentiment in parts of the market.
• Bitcoin is sharply lower, testing the $72,500 area, its lowest level since early November 2024, when Donald Trump’s election victory fueled hopes for a long-term crypto bull market and more crypto-friendly regulation. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is down 10%, falling to around $2,100.
• Arabica coffee futures (COFFEE) are also seeing a strong correction, down more than 6%. Pressure is being reinforced by improved weather in Brazil, which is boosting expectations for a production rebound, although the market remains cautious given ongoing weather risk and a still-tight supply balance. Sucden Financial forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at 72.5 million bags (including 47.5 million Arabica) and maintained its 2025/26 estimate at 64 million bags (39 million Arabica, 25 million Robusta). Assuming roughly 21 million bags of exports in the first half and domestic consumption near 10.5 million bags, full-year offtake would total about 63 million bags, leaving only around 1 million bags of carry-in for 2026/27, which could slightly stabilize the balance. Weather remains the key variable.
• Intel’s CEO said that sources indicate the U.S. is currently behind China in the development of open-source AI as well as in space technology. Separately, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that the U.S. could lose its advantage in AI development because adoption is progressing more slowly than expected. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives passed a government funding package aimed at ending a partial U.S. government shutdown.

US500 and Bitcoin (D1 timeframe)

Source: xStation5

Source: xStation5