Daily summary: Dollar on a wave of strong US data

• Before midday, we learned inflation data from Germany and Spain. CPI from Germany rose from 6.1% to 6.4% year-on-year, against a consensus reading of 6.3%. In Spain, on the other hand, we saw CPI falling in line with expectations to 1.9% YoY from 3.2%YoY.

• Stock indices from the Old Continent were trading mixed today. The DAX ended the day in the region of the benchmark, the FTSE100 lost 0.4% and the CAC40 gained 0.36%.

• As for data from the US, today saw the release of unemployment claims data, which showed a drop to 239,000 (the lowest level in over 1.5 years). A GDP report was also released today, showing a 2% YoY growth in the US economy in the first quarter (previously 1.3% YoY). 

• The US core PCE ratio rose to 4.9% QoQ, up from 4.4% QoQ.

• Following Powell's recent hawkish comments, and today's macro data from the US, investors estimate with a near 90% probability that the Fed will hike by 25 bps in July. Following this, the US Dollar Index (USDIDX) came out today at its highest levels in a fortnight. 

• The major Wall Street stock indices are trading higher. The Russell 2000 is the best performer, with gains of 1.3%, the Dow Jones adding 0.75%,and the S&P500 gaining 0.3%. The tech Nasdaq remains in the background, trading 0.1% below the bar. 

• EURUSD has struggled to establish a clear direction in recent times. The quotations of the main currency pair retreated below USD 1.09 today. It seems that only a breakout above USD 1.10 or below USD 1.08 could lead to a stronger price impulse.

• USDJPY continues its northward movement. The currency pair continues its rally after breaking above the 142.25 resistance on 22 June. The nearest resistance falls at 145.30.

• he Riksbank raised interest rates as expected by 25 bps to 3.75%. Moreover, the Bank indicates that it will raise interest rates at least one more time this year. 

• Micron, despite releasing better-than-expected quarterly results, failed to sustain early rallies as recent announcements indicating an impending escalation of US-China tensions in the semiconductor sector negated demand-side efforts. 

• The mood in the crypto market is much better. BITCOIN is up more than 1.5% and SOLANA is up more than 11%. The sentiment around digital assets was boosted by the announcement from CME Group, which will launch futures clearing on the Ethereum/Bitcoin pair. 

• In the precious metals market, gold is leading the way, with the price of gold struggling against resistance at $1,900 per ounce. The gold price has been in a downtrend for the past two months. Recent hawkish comments from central banks, including the Fed's Jerome Powell, have only added to the downward pressure, which was exacerbated today by better GDP data from the US and lower claims

• Crude oil is gaining on Thursday, nevertheless the increases are limited. WTI quotations failed to break above the $70 per barrel level, which should be seen as short-term resistance. 

• NATGAS extends the upward wave after a lower-than-expected reading on the weekly US stocks of this commodity. 

USDJPY interval H4. Source: xStation5