Major US equity indices are trading in the green today. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained as much as 1.7%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.1%. The Dow Jones lagged behind, yet still enjoyed a solid session, up 0.6%.
Figure 1: Winners and Losers in the Nasdaq 100 (17.09.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 17.09.2026
At least two key factors can be attributed to today's rally.
Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Data
It is worth beginning with yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting. In line with expectations, interest rates were raised by 25 bps. As the decision was almost fully priced in, market focus shifted primarily to the accompanying commentary.
Crucially, the decision was unanimous, with Kevin Warsh sending a clear signal that elevated inflation necessitates a restrictive stance, which the robust condition of the US economy can well accommodate. He noted that summer readings offer no grounds to suggest the underlying inflationary trend has materially improved.
The dot plot, representing committee members' anonymous interest rate projections, points to one more rate hike this year. Warsh once again opted out of participating in the projections.
Bond Market
US 10-year Treasury yields initially rose by nearly 1.5%. Today, however, we witnessed a sharp drop back to pre-decision levels (around 1.95% for 10-year bonds).
Figure 2: US 10-Year Government Bond Yields (06.2026 - 09.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 17.09.2026
The primary driver behind this move appears to be the sharp decline in crude oil prices. Around 2:00 PM, Brent crude was trading below $102 per barrel. Prices have since recovered towards higher levels around $105.
Figure 3: Brent and WTI Crude Oil (2026)
Source: XTB Research, 17.09.2026
The pullback in the bond market is notably softer. It appears that, equal to the drop in energy commodities, easing fears regarding the Fed's independence were crucial. A loss of independence would risk unanchoring inflation expectations (and necessitate far more aggressive tightening in the future). From this perspective, a rate hike may represent the "lesser of two evils" for investors.
Energy Commodities
Energy commodity prices are being supported, among other things, by the re-routing of a portion of Saudi crude oil exports towards ports in Oman following damage to the East-West pipeline. Investors also welcomed assurances from US officials that the damaged pipeline is expected to resume operations within the next few days.
Stock Market
Semiconductor stocks lead today’s gains, being the most sensitive to bond yields due to DCF valuation models where 10-year US Treasuries typically serve as the discount rate. The popular SOXX index is up by a strong 3.5%.
Figure 4: Treemap for the Nasdaq 100 (17.09.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 17.09.2026
Against the backdrop of market events, an AI risk summit convened by King Charles III took place in Scotland, attended by Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind), Sarah Friar (OpenAI), and Tino Cuellar (Anthropic), among others. Huang urged AI development companies to rigorously test their systems and pause the deployment of products that are not sufficiently safe.
The meeting came amidst a broad debate sparked by a weekend essay from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, calling for a slowdown in the development of the most advanced AI models - a proposal endorsed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. At the time, Huang spoke against additional sector regulation.
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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
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