Today’s macroeconomic calendar is focused primarily on Canadian labour market data, which will be released at 14:30. The consensus expects employment to increase by 8K following a sharp decline of 41.7K in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 6.5% from 6.4%. The figures could provide further insight into the health of the Canadian economy and influence expectations for the Bank of Canada’s future monetary policy decisions.
Key Releases from the Asian Session
- Japanese household spending fell by 3.1% year-on-year in August, coming in above market expectations of a 3.5% decline (previously -3.6% y/y).
Macroeconomic Calendar
- 08:00 – Norway: CPI inflation y/y for September. Consensus: 3.6%. Previous: 3.3%.
- 08:00 – Norway: Core CPI inflation y/y for September. Consensus: 3.1%. Previous: 3.0%.
- 08:00 – Norway: PPI inflation y/y for September. Previous: 30.1%.
- 08:00 – Sweden: Industrial production, seasonally adjusted, y/y for August. Previous: 0.2%.
- 08:00 – Romania: Final GDP, not seasonally adjusted, y/y for Q2. Consensus: -0.4%. Previous: -1.2%.
- 09:00 – Turkey: Industrial production y/y for August. Previous: -0.3%.
- 09:00 – Slovakia: Foreign trade balance for August. Previous: EUR 14M.
- 09:00 – Slovakia: Industrial production y/y for August. Consensus: 2.1%. Previous: 2.4%.
- 10:00 – Italy: Industrial production m/m for August. Consensus: 0.0%. Previous: 0.7%.
- 12:15 – Eurozone: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone.
- 14:30 – Canada: Unemployment rate for September. Consensus: 6.5%. Previous: 6.4%.
- 14:30 – Canada: Employment change for September. Consensus: +8K. Previous: -41.7K.
- 14:30 – Canada: Full-time employment change for September. Previous: -35.9K.
- 14:30 – Canada: Part-time employment change for September. Previous: -5.8K.
- 15:35 – Eurozone: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
- 16:00 – US: Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October. Consensus: 47.7. Previous: 48.1.
- 16:00 – US: Preliminary short-term inflation expectations for October. Previous: 4.6%.
- 16:00 – US: Preliminary long-term inflation expectations for October. Previous: 3.4%.
- 19:00 – US: Baker Hughes oil rig count. Previous: 457.
- 22:00 – US: Speech by Boston Fed President Susan Collins.
Three Markets to Watch
- CAD/USD – Canadian Dollar: The Canadian labour market report at 14:30, particularly the unemployment rate and employment change, could trigger a direct reaction in CAD-related currency pairs and shape expectations for the Bank of Canada’s interest rate policy.
- S&P 500 The University of Michigan report at 16:00, alongside inflation expectations, could influence risk sentiment on Wall Street and the US dollar heading into the end of Friday’s session.
- Oil Markets: Changes in oil prices remain relevant for broader market sentiment and the Canadian dollar, given Canada’s role as a major energy exporter. Investors will also monitor the US oil rig count at 19:00 for additional insight into activity in the energy sector.
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