Economic Calendar: Trump-Xi summit yields no breakthrough (25.09.2026)

President Xi’s first visit to the United States in over a decade ended without a major breakthrough. While both sides expressed a desire to maintain stable bilateral relations, persistent disputes over Taiwan, artificial intelligence, tariffs, and the war in Iran remained unresolved. Announcements were limited to an extension of the existing trade truce and the transfer of two giant pandas to Atlanta Zoo. These failed to move the market.

🌏 Key Macroeconomic Releases

Thursday

United States

• Initial jobless claims dropped by 1,000 to 197,000 in the week ending 19 September - coming in below consensus expectations (201,000) and near 57-year lows. The labour market remains resilient despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Figure 1: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (2022 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 25.09.2026

Friday

Germany

• Consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply, with the October index falling to -30.6 points from -26.8 in September, well below consensus (-27.4). Rising energy prices weighed heavily on income expectations, causing the sub-index to plunge 16.7 points to -15.0 - its lowest level since April.

United Kingdom

• In a surprisingly positive reading, the index rose to -13 from -14 - hitting a two-year high (since August 2024) despite forecasts of a decline to -16. Both overall economic assessments and personal financial outlooks (an 8-month high) improved, though GfK cautioned that elevated inflation and higher energy costs could soon weigh on sentiment.

📆 Economic Calendar

Friday

Markets in China, Taiwan, and South Korea are closed today in observance of the Mid-Autumn Festival.

• United States: Durable Goods Orders for August
  • Time: 1:30 PM
  • Consensus: -0.3% MoM
  • Previous reading: +1.1% MoM
• United States: Speech by Kansas City Fed President
  • Time: 1:30 PM
• United States: Atlanta Fed GDPNow
  • Time: 3:00 PM
  • Consensus: 5.1%
  • Previous reading: 5.1%
• United States: University of Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations
  • Time: 3:00 PM
  • Consensus: 4.6% (1-year)
  • Previous reading: 4.1% (1-year)
• CFTC Commitments of Traders (Speculative Positions)
  • Time: 8:00 PM

🗂️ Corporate Earnings Releases

• Zena Tech ($ZENA.US) - BMO (Before Market Open)
• CBAK Energy ($CBAT.US) - BMO (Before Market Open)

3 Key Markets to Watch

OIL: The US and Iran are exploring a phased agreement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the physical market continues to price in elevated risk, with the spread between front-month Brent contracts widening to USD 6.80 (the widest level since April).

USDJPY: The yen strengthened to around 158.35 per USD after Japanese Finance Minister Katayama revealed that Donald Trump expressed concerns to Prime Minister Takaichi over yen weakness.

US10Y: The 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 5.19% following a surge of over 20 bps across two sessions (peaking at 5.24% on Thursday). 30-year yields reached nearly 5.5% - their highest level in over two decades. Swap markets continue to price in three additional 25 bps rate hikes from the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months.

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB