Economic calendar 🗽 Wall Street holds its breath: US PCE data and Nvidia earnings in focus

Today's calendar is relatively busy, with the key releases concentrated in the afternoon, shortly before the Wall Street open. The main focus will be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for July, together with fresh data on U.S. household income and consumption. The releases could trigger a sharp increase in volatility in EURUSD and, once again, in the bond market.

At the same time, Nvidia will symbolically "close" the U.S. earnings season when it reports results for fiscal Q2 2027, corresponding to calendar Q2 2026, after today's U.S. market close. The release will be one of the most important tests for the broader AI rally. The market expects revenue of around $93–95 billion, implying growth of nearly 96% y/y, while the EPS consensus stands at approximately $2.05–2.10.

The main areas to watch will be data center revenue, the pace of the Blackwell ramp and the company's guidance for the next quarter. Investors will also closely monitor gross margins, which have remained near a very high 78% in recent quarters. A clear decline could point to rising competitive pressure or weaker pricing power. Expectations for Nvidia are already so elevated that merely meeting consensus may not be enough to sustain the stock's upward momentum.

The earnings call will be just as important as the headline numbers, as management's commentary could provide important clues about the future pace of hyperscaler spending and whether demand for AI infrastructure, as well as the build-out itself, is still expanding fast enough.

Economic calendar

• 9:00 AM GMT – Switzerland: ZEW Expectations Index, previous: 10
• 12:00 PM GMT – US: MBA Mortgage Applications, previous: -0.4%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: PCE Price Index YoY, forecast: 3.6%; previous: 3.7%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: PCE Price Index MoM, forecast: 0.1%; previous: -0.1%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: Core PCE Price Index YoY, forecast: 3.3%; previous: 3.3%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: Core PCE Price Index MoM, forecast: 0.2%; previous: 0.1%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: Core PCE, preliminary reading, forecast: 3.4%; previous: 3.4%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: Durable Goods Orders, previous: 0.5%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: Core Durable Goods Orders, forecast: 0.6%; previous: 0.7%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: Consumer Spending MoM, forecast: 0.1%; previous: 0.3%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: Personal Income MoM, forecast: 0.2%; previous: 0.2%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: Real Personal Consumption MoM, forecast: 0.0%; previous: 0.4%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: GDP QoQ, second estimate, previous: 1.5%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: GDP Price Index, forecast: 6.2%; previous: 6.2%
• 1:30 PM GMT – US: GDP Deflator, preliminary reading, previous: 6.3%
• 3:30 PM GMT – US: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, forecast: +1.58 million barrels; previous: +4.405 million
• 3:30 PM GMT – US: EIA Gasoline Inventories, forecast: -1.1 million barrels; previous: +0.688 million
• 3:30 PM GMT – US: EIA Distillate Inventories, forecast: -1.9 million barrels; previous: -1.530 million
• 3:30 PM GMT – US: Cushing Crude Oil Inventories, no forecast; previous: -1.314 million barrels
• 4:45 PM GMT – US: Fed's Thomas Barkin speaks
• Nvidia: fiscal Q2 2027 earnings release after the U.S. market close

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