Market Wrap: Europe attempts rebound amid hopes of restoring traffic in Hormuz 🚢

Markets & Companies

Indices are clawing back losses on hopes for a potential resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after the first non-Iranian tanker—owned by Pakistan's National Shipping Corp.—successfully transited the waterway despite the elevated threat level.

• Europe Leads the Charge: The German DAX (DE40) is leading the rebound with a 1.1% gain, primarily fueled by a 6.6% surge in Commerzbank shares after Italy’s UniCredit launched a new takeover bid. Amsterdam (NED25) and London (UK100) are up 1% and 0.9% respectively, while emerging markets like Poland (W20: +0.2%) continue to lag.

• Sector Focus: Oil majors remain dominant with Brent holding above $100/bbl (Shell +1.3%, BP +0.6%). Banks and real estate firms are also gaining, buoyed by the prospect of interest rate hikes in the Eurozone.

• UniCredit vs. Commerzbank: UniCredit has announced its intention to acquire 100% of Commerzbank (up from its current 30% stake), a move that would trigger massive consolidation in European banking. However, Commerzbank's board has criticized the offer for lacking a premium and sufficient terms, with CEO Bettina Orlopp reiterating her commitment to an independent strategy.

• Bayer Upgrade: Bayer shares jumped nearly 5% following a UBS upgrade to "Buy." Analysts are optimistic about a potential glyphosate settlement and the strong performance of drugs like Nubeqa and Kerendia.

• Commodities & FX: Early-session pressure on oil has eased, with Brent and WTI falling to $102 (-1.4%) and $95 (-3.5%) respectively. The Dollar Index (USDIDX) is on the defensive (-0.35%), signaling a return of risk appetite. The AUD and NZD are up about 0.9% against the greenback, while EURUSD has rebounded 0.4% to 1.148.

Volatility in Stoxx 600 companies. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

Economy & Geopolitics

• Poland’s Inflation: In February 2026, core inflation (ex-food and energy) slowed to 2.5% y/y, while headline CPIlanded at 2.1%. While these NBP figures show fading price pressure in key segments, they do not yet reflect the most recent energy price shock.

• The Hormuz Coalition: Donald Trump is amping up pressure on NATO allies and China to secure the Strait of Hormuz, warning that NATO's future is at stake if members remain inactive. The U.S. plans to announce a multinational escort coalition as early as this week.

• Iran’s Stance: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified that the Strait is "open" from Tehran’s perspective—but strictly closed to the U.S., Israel, and their "allies" who have carried out "unjust aggression."

• Trade Talks: Chinese negotiator Li described recent talks with the U.S. as productive, focusing on a possible extension of tariff suspensions.

• Canada Decelerates: Canadian inflation cooled to 1.8% in February. While a base-year effect helped lower the headline number, monthly fuel costs still rose 3.6% due to the Middle East conflict.

Dollar has been declining alongside OIL during today's trading. Source: xStation5