Morning Wrap (03.04.2026)

Market context:

• We are kicking off the final trading session of the week ahead of the long Easter weekend.
• For this reason, trading on most markets will largely come to a standstill today. The same will be true on Monday, with the exception of the U.S.
• However, the volatility seen in today’s session may encounter some resistance at 2:30 p.m., when key March NFP data from the U.S. economy is released.

News from around the world and the markets:

• China’s Caixin Services PMI for March stood at 52.1, marking a significant slowdown from February’s level of 56.7—a 33-month high. The sector has remained in expansion territory for over three years, but growth has slowed—export orders returned to contraction, employment fell for the second month in a row, and companies are cutting prices due to weak pricing power. The composite PMI also slowed, though it remains above the 50-point threshold.

• Japan’s services PMI (S&P Global) for March stood at 53.4, edging down from February’s level of 53.8 – a 21-month high. The sector has remained in expansion for the 12th consecutive month, but momentum is waning—growth in new orders was the slowest in three months, and energy costs are rising sharply due to the conflict in the Middle East. The most worrying sign is business confidence, which has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic.

• Trump once again threatened Iran, vowing to destroy bridges and power plants if Tehran does not comply with the terms of the ceasefire,  including the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran promised “devastating attacks” on American targets, and the escalation of the conflict—which has been ongoing for over a month with the involvement of the U.S. and Israel—raises serious legal concerns, as the deliberate destruction of civilian infrastructure may constitute a war crime under international law.

• According to TASS, Iran has signaled its willingness to negotiate with Europe and Asia regarding the Strait of Hormuz and oil trade, excluding the United States and Israel.

• Iran claims that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air defense system shot down a U.S. F-35 fighter jet over central Iran.

• As a reminder, Iran announced yesterday that it is working with Oman to draft a protocol governing ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which partially calmed nerves in Asian markets and pushed most indices higher.

• Oil Prices Hit Multi-Year Highs – Oil prices surged on Thursday: WTI jumped 12% to $112.06 per barrel, while Brent rose 8% to $109.24 per barrel.

• In Asia, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea are performing the best today, with gains of 1.25% and 2.77%, respectively,

• The Swiss franc, the British pound, and the U.S. dollar are performing best on the Forex market. Declines are most pronounced in the exchange rates of the Australian and New Zealand dollars and the euro.

Source: xStation