- The US session concluded broadly flat, with the S&P 500 registering a marginal decline of 0.07% while the Nasdaq advanced by 0.03%. Both index futures are currently down by 0.11% in early morning trading.
- Asian markets are experiencing mixed sentiment amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. The JAP225 is down 0.4%, and China's CHN.cash has fallen 0.66%. Conversely, the CH50cash, representing the 50 largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has gained over 0.8%.
- Donald Trump has announced his intention to dispatch a letter detailing a trade agreement to the European Union in the coming days.
- Sources within the EU indicate that a provisional agreement is anticipated as early as this week, with a 10% tariff rate forming the basis. Trump is also reportedly demanding a 17% tariff on agricultural products.
- Trump is expected to present trade terms for seven countries today.
- According to Bessent, tariff revenues are projected to surpass $300 billion this year, having already reached $100 billion. May alone saw a fourfold increase in tariff collections compared to the same period last year.
- Donald Trump yesterday announced the imposition of a 50% tariff on copper, effective within 30 days. Copper prices on COMEX surged by as much as 12% at one point, while LME prices remained largely unaffected, possibly due to the session's closing hours. It is notable that the price discrepancy between COMEX and LME this year has been substantial, driven by concerns over US tariffs. Potentially, new tariffs could curtail copper exports to the US, increasing supply availability in other global regions and thereby reducing price pressure on other exchanges. Countries such as Chile, Peru, and Mexico are expected to be most significantly impacted by the copper tariffs.
- EURUSD maintains low volatility and remains above the 1.1700 level. Gold continues its decline, trading marginally below $3300 per ounce.
- The World Gold Council reports that gold holdings in ETFs increased by nearly 400 tonnes in the first half of the year, reaching approximately 3,600 tonnes. This marks the largest increase in five years. The record for gold in ETFs was set in October 2020, at around 3,900 tonnes. The rise in gold ETF holdings reflects robust demand for safe-haven assets.
- The RBNZ held interest rates steady at 3.25%, a decision that aligned with market expectations.
- China's inflation rate rose to 0.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 0.0% year-on-year, from a previous reading of -0.1% year-on-year. This marks the first positive inflation print since March.
- The market anticipates that the RBA, which kept interest rates unchanged yesterday, will revert to rate cuts in August.
- Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 forecast to 6600 points from 6100 points. The firm anticipates strong corporate earnings, further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and limited inflationary pressure from tariffs.
- Kevin Hassett is reportedly being considered as the next Federal Reserve Chair, according to the Wall Street Journal. Hassett, an economic advisor to Trump, is seen as potentially the least independent candidate for the role. Previous speculation for the Fed Chair position included Bessent, Lutnick, or current FOMC members Waller or Bowman.
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