Morning wrap (09.09.2026)

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated again. Washington said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after the IRGC attacked a U.S. warship. Iran responded with a large missile barrage targeting U.S. bases in Jordan and reported attacks on U.S. destroyers and vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices are rising following these developments, with OIL trading near $99 and OIL.WTI around $95.

The conflict is increasingly focused on reciprocal attacks against oil tankers and shipping infrastructure. Iran warned U.S.-linked vessels in the vicinity of Kuwait and Bahrain, while Washington signaled that Iranian tankers would continue to be targeted if U.S. military vessels come under attack.

China’s CPI inflation accelerated to 0.8% YoY in August from 0.5%, while PPI rose 3.8% YoY. The readings ease near-term deflation concerns, although much of the improvement reflects higher energy costs rather than stronger consumer demand. The fundamental outlook for Chinese consumption therefore remains relatively weak.

South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1.5%, moving above 7,000 points, despite renewed geopolitical tensions and a weak close on Wall Street. Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and semiconductors continues to support Korean equities. Japan’s Nikkei also recovered some of Tuesday’s losses. Asian equity markets are showing surprising resilience despite elevated oil prices and Middle East risks.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation remains the central bank’s primary concern and confirmed that another interest rate hike is still under consideration. He pointed to a combination of Middle East-related energy disruptions, the global AI investment boom, and domestic supply constraints.

UBS believes the recent correction in gold has been driven primarily by more hawkish expectations for the Fed rather than a deterioration in the long-term investment thesis. Central bank demand remains the key source of structural support, with UBS expecting official-sector purchases of 750–1,000 tonnes per year. The bank views rate-driven declines in gold as opportunities to build long-term exposure.

Washington has expanded its trade dispute with Canada, imposing additional restrictions on more Canadian products and seeking to curb imports including cars, dairy products, and alcohol. The measures follow the breakdown of recent negotiations and retaliatory action by Canada.