Morning wrap (11.03.2026)

The US military reported the destruction of 16 Iranian vessels designed for laying mines near the Strait of Hormuz in order to prevent disruptions to shipping. President Trump warned Iran against attempting to mine the route.

The oil market remains highly sensitive to developments related to the conflict in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering the largest coordinated release of strategic oil reserves in history. The planned volume would exceed the 182 million barrels released during the Russia–Ukraine crisis in 2022.

Another container ship reported damage caused by a missile strike near the United Arab Emirates, close to the Strait of Hormuz. The incident highlights the growing threat to trade routes.

Asian stock markets rose despite geopolitical tensions. Japan’s Nikkei (JP225) gained more than 2%, surpassing the 55,000-point level, while China’s new energy technology sector rose by more than 3%. The Chinese CH50cash index is gaining 1.30%.

Hawkish comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser increased expectations for monetary policy tightening. Several major banks now forecast rate hikes in both March and May. The shift in expectations stems from concerns that rising oil prices could push inflation higher again.

The hawkish comments are supporting the Australian dollar, which is one of the stronger currencies in the forex market today.

The AUDUSD pair is gaining 0.80% to levels not seen since mid-2022. The move is driven by rising expectations for RBA rate hikes and improving macroeconomic prospects.

Economists largely expect the Bank of Japan to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. At the same time, most forecasts point to rates rising to 1% by mid-2026. The market is currently pricing the first possible hikes as early as April or June.

Later today, the monthly US CPI report for February will be released. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.17% m/m increase in the core index, below the market consensus. The bank expects annual core inflation to come in at around 2.42%. Declines in used car prices and slower growth in housing costs may help limit inflationary pressure.

The rise in oil prices will not yet be visible in the February report.

Oracle is gaining 8.70% in after-hours trading following its fiscal third-quarter results. The company delivered better-than-expected results thanks to strong demand for cloud services. Revenue reached 17.19 billion USD, exceeding forecasts, and operating margins were also higher. The value of contracts in backlog (RPO) increased to 553 billion USD, indicating strong future demand. The company raised its revenue guidance to 90 billion USD.