Morning wrap (24.07.2025)

The situation in the Asian market appears solid, though not as robust as yesterday. CH.cash gained 0.4%, while JAP225 rose by 0.2%.

US index futures saw gains following yesterday's strong Alphabet results but are slightly down today.

Australian preliminary Manufacturing PMI for July came in at 51.6, an increase from the previous value of 50.6. The Services PMI also showed growth, rising to 53.8 from 51.8 previously.

Japan's Manufacturing PMI for July registered 48.8, falling below the forecast of 50.2 and also below the previous value of 50.1, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit the Federal Reserve today, fueling uncertainty regarding his conflict with Jerome Powell. It is noteworthy that Trump will be only the fourth president to visit the Fed's headquarters. Information emerged yesterday suggesting that Powell is reportedly under consideration for charges of excessive use of federal funds for a $2.5 billion renovation of the headquarters.

Bessent indicates that the announcement of the new Fed chief is expected in December or January, somewhat reducing the risk of a dual power structure at the Fed. The dollar is marginally weaker against the euro this morning.

RBA Governor Bullock confirmed a cautious approach to interest rates in Australia. She noted, among other things, that the rise in unemployment in June was in line with expectations and that the labour market remains slightly overheated. Furthermore, she stressed that inflation has not fallen as much as anticipated, casting doubt on an August rate cut, although it is still priced in by the market. It is worth recalling that the RBA surprised at its last meeting by not cutting interest rates.

We are observing further strong gains in Antipodean currencies, which are also linked to hopes for global trade agreements. AUDUSD has breached the 0.6600 level and is at its highest since November 2024.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping today. She indicates that improving relations with China is crucial, particularly amidst trade uncertainties with the US.

Reports of an exchange of fire on the border between Thailand and Cambodia have emerged. Due to the tense situation, Thailand has evacuated 40,000 people from border villages.

Precious metals continue to decline amidst slightly improved market sentiment. Gold is down 0.2%, while palladium has dropped by as much as 1.5%.

Oil prices are up marginally by 0.15%. Gas prices also gained 0.15% after a strong sell-off during yesterday's session. Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gas prices for 2026.

Tesla: In Q2 2025, Tesla recorded revenues of $22.50 billion, slightly below analysts' forecasts ($22.74 billion), with earnings per share of $0.40 against an expected $0.43. Automotive segment revenues fell by 16% year-on-year, but the company commenced production of a more affordable model and launched a Robotaxi service in Austin, which increased investor optimism. Shares fell by 4.5% in after-hours trading.

Alphabet: Alphabet achieved revenues of $96.43 billion in Q2 2025, exceeding forecasts ($94 billion), with earnings per share of $2.31 against an expected $2.18. A 14% year-on-year increase in revenues, particularly in the Google Cloud and YouTube advertising segments, and increased AI investments to $85 billion, contributed to a slight rise in shares after the announcement. Shares gained 1.7% in after-hours trading, propelling Wall Street futures to new historical highs.

IBM: IBM reported revenues of $16.98 billion in Q2 2025, surpassing expectations ($16.59 billion), with earnings per share of $2.80 against a projected $2.64. Despite solid results, shares fell by 5% in after-hours trading, although the company reaffirmed its forecast of over $13.5 billion in free cash flow for 2025.