Morning wrap (26.11.2025)

Asian-Pacific indices are trading higher. Chinese indices are gaining between 0.15–0.40%, Japan’s JP225 is up 1.10%, and Singapore’s SG20cash is up 0.30%.

The strongest-performing currency is the New Zealand dollar after the RBNZ decision. The weakest is the Japanese yen. USDJPY is up 0.10% despite a weaker dollar, and NZDUSD is up 1.15%.

The RBNZ cut rates by 25 bp to 2.25%, but the message was clearly hawkish — the bank signaled the end of the easing cycle. The OCR is expected to remain near 2.25% until early 2026 and then rise to 2.65% by the end of 2027. This effectively closes the door to further easing.

Governor Hawkseby stated that risks are “balanced,” the OCR path remains flat until 2026, and all options remain on the table — confirming that yesterday’s 25 bp cut was likely the last of the cycle.

AUD rises after another acceleration in inflation in Australia. Monthly CPI increased 3.8% y/y in October (vs 3.6% expected), the fastest in 10 months and the fourth consecutive acceleration since June. Chances of further RBA rate cuts are now minimal.

Several BOJ members — Masu, Koeda, and even the dovish Noguchi — are signaling that the time for a rate hike is approaching, with a possible decision as early as December or January.

Japan’s services PPI increased by 2.7% (previously 3.0%), with strong price pressures in labor-intensive sectors — hotels and construction — supporting the BOJ’s wage-inflation narrative.

The PBOC set the yuan fixing at the strongest level since 14 October 2024, strengthening the currency.

Gold rebounds 0.54% to 4,150 USD per ounce. Tensions around Taiwan persist. China has accused Japan and Taiwan’s DPP of “provocations” in the Taiwan Strait, warning against external interference. Taiwan is preparing for a potential military conflict by 2027.

HP’s Q4 revenue came in at 14.64 billion USD (vs ~14.53 billion expected), EPS 0.93 USD (vs 0.92), but the EPS forecast for FY26 at 2.90–3.20 USD was below consensus. The company plans to cut 4,000–6,000 jobs and achieve 1 billion USD in savings by FY2028, accelerating full AI integration and restructuring its global operations.

China is implementing AI and automation in factories on a massive scale — last year, 295,000 industrial robots were installed (9× more than in the U.S.). “Dark factories” are being developed, 24/7 automated production is expanding, and artificial intelligence is expected to help maintain export competitiveness in the face of tariffs and labor shortages.

Trump announced that there is no longer a fixed deadline for a Russia–Ukraine agreement, although negotiations are making progress.