Equity indices in both Europe and on Wall Street seem to be pulled in opposite directions by two conflicting yet very strong price trends. On the one hand, there is an uptrend driven by a sharp rise in expectations for big tech earnings amid another wave of the “AI boom.” Valuations are under pressure, however, from Donald Trump, who in his weekend remarks clearly shifted to a more confrontational tone on Iran. Oil prices are up nearly 4%.
US sentiment is nonetheless better than in Europe. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are up just under 0.2–0.3%.
With no major earnings conferences scheduled for Monday and only a small number of key macroeconomic releases, the market may pay more attention than usual to political commentary. Representatives of both the US and Iran may attempt to escalate or de-escalate the situation, which could trigger meaningful market moves.
It is also worth watching Europe, where any news on a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, as well as ECB monetary policy, will be closely monitored.
Macroeconomic data:
- Half an hour after the US session opens, investors will receive important April existing home sales data. The market expects an increase from 3.98 million to 4.05 million.
US100 (D1)
Price continues an almost vertical move higher on the chart, holding near the all-time high. The RSI indicates a clearly overbought condition, reaching its highest level since September 2025. Potential resistance may be found at the 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci retracement levels. In the event of a trend reversal or correction, potential support levels are the 78.6 and 100 Fibonacci levels. Source: xStation5
Company news:
- Intel (INTC.US) & Micron (MU.US): Despite cautious broader-market sentiment, semiconductor stocks continue to post massive gains on a wave of near-euphoric investor positioning in the sector. Share prices are up more than 5% in after-hours trading.
- Moderna (MRNA.US): The stock is up more than 10% after the company announced it is working on a vaccine for hantaviruses.
- Babcock & Wilcox (BW.US): Shares are up more than 10% after earnings; the power segment increased revenue by 44% year over year.
- Lumentum (LITE.US): The stock is up about 4% after announcing its addition to the Nasdaq 100 index.
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