- PPI inflation highest since December 2022.
- All measures place considerably above expected levels.
- EUR/USD reaction very muted.
- FOMC rate hike by year-end roughly 40% priced-in.
- PPI inflation highest since December 2022.
- All measures place considerably above expected levels.
- EUR/USD reaction very muted.
- FOMC rate hike by year-end roughly 40% priced-in.
The April reading has shown the sharpest increase in producer prices since 2022. The increase is, naturally, largely due to higher petrol prices. That said, the core measure, stripping off food and energy, has also picked up significantly, up to 5.2%.
Figure 1: US CPI & PPI Inflation (2018 - 2026)
Source: XTB Research, 13.05.2026
All of the readings represent a major upward surprise, placing considerably above expected levels.
- PPI Inflation [YoY]: 6.0% (vs. 4.8% consensus)
- PPI Inflation [MoM]: 1.4% (vs. 0.5%)
- Core PPI Inflation* [YoY]: 5.2% (vs. 4.3%)
- Core PPI Inflation* [MoM]: 1.0% (vs. 0.3%)
- Super-Core PPI Inflation** [YoY]: 5.2% (vs. 4.3%)
- Super-Core PPI Inflation** [MoM]: 1.0% (vs. 0.3%)
* Excluding food and energy.
* Excluding food, energy and trade services.
A 3% monthly increase in airfares is perhaps the most striking when looking at detailed data. Some categories have, however, surprised to the downside, with hospital care up roughly 0.1% MoM and portfolio management down 2.4%.
Figure 2: US PPI Inflation and WTI Oil (2012 - 2026)
Source: XTB Research, 13.05.2026
The reaction of the EUR/USD is, rather surprisingly, very muted, with the pair flat after the release and down 0.3% on the day, likely due to little to none positive information regarding the developments in the Middle East. We also see very timid swings in S&P 500 futures.
Markets slightly increased their bets for FOMC interest rate hikes, such a move happening before the year-end is still not the base scenario, however (roughly 40% priced-in). We have also seen a further pick-up in US 10-year bond yields, up to 4.48%, not seen since July.
—
Michaล Jóลบwiak
Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
michal.jozwiak@xtb.com
Daily Summary: Hot inflation and awaiting for news from Beijing
TrumpโXi: Who represents business and how are markets reacting?
US OPEN: Higher inflation to cap gains?
Birkenstock shares hit lowest level since IPO following earnings report ๐ฅ
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
