Árupicai Összesítő: Réz, arany, ezüst, pamut (Angol hír)

Copper

• Corporate profits in China recorded a further decline on a monthly basis, suggesting the possibility of introducing further measures aimed at stimulating economic activity

• Credit impulse (18 month lead) still potentially leaves room for further price declines, on the other hand recent publications point to a rebound, which may weigh on short-term sentiment

• If the sentiment during the summer remains positive, there is a chance for a short-term recovery of the industrial metals prices, although slightly better sentiment may also be related to the rebalancing of portfolios at the end of the quarter

• Yuan consolidation suggests that downward move of copper prices may ease, at least in the near future

• Copper is heavily oversold by speculators, which could give a short-term contrarian signal. Also RSI indicator shows signs that copper is oversold

The credit impulse (18 month lead) still leaves room for a decline in copper prices. On the other hand, copper may also react to recent readings that show a big improvement (though also due to a low base effect). Nevertheless, there is potential for a slight recovery in the short term. Source: Bloomberg, XTB

Technically, copper is showing oversold signs (RSI indicators). Source: Bloomberg

Juan weakened sharply in the previous weeks, but we are currently seeing a stabilization that may also halt copper declines in the short-term. Source: xStation5

Gold

• Ban on imports of Russian gold by some G7 members had only modest positive impact on prices of the precious metal

• It should be noted that LME has removed Russia from list of gold bar suppliers back in March, leading to lower supply of gold for deliveries

• Nevertheless, stability of gold in current uncertain times suggests that gold continues to perform its role of a safe haven asset

• Gold may, however, perform mixed when pressure on rate hikes increases and gold investments become less attractive compared to, for example, bonds

• Net speculative positioning for gold increases

Gold price continues to trade in a narrow range and manages to stay above $1,800 per ounce, even as rate hikes expectations rise. At the same time, yields may have already peaked, what should alleviate some pressure off gold. Source: xStation5

Silver

• Silver price should behave similar to gold due to correlation between precious metals

• On the other hand, silver is also a metal with industrial use that accounts for 50% of total demand

• Forecasts for this year point to the largest deficit on the market in at least over a decade

• Speculative positioning remains positive and starts to rebound, what also may suggest that silver manages to defend important support

Silver trades near $20-21 support zone. Bulls would require a break above $22.0-22.3 for the double bottom pattern to get in play. Similar pattern also surfaced at the end of the previous year. Source: xStation5

Current forecasts for silver market point to the largest deficit in over a decade. Source: Bloomberg

Cotton

• Cotton price had one of the worst months in history with an over-30% drop

• Interestingly, this drop is in-line with seasonal patterns and cotton experienced large price pullbacks in this period in the past as well

• A plunge can be reasoned with an overall deterioration of moods on commodity markets, and recent drop in oil prices

• On the other hand, drop was also fueled by a large reduction of option positions

• On top of that, cotton prices is also reacting to rising concerns that global inflation and economic slowdown will result in reduced spending on clothing

• Those concerns outweigh impact of poor forecasts for harvest in Texas, triggered by recent drought

• After 3 years on significant reduction in global stockpile, current forecasts point to no change in the level of inventories compared to previous year

Data on cotton stockpiles does not hint that a repeat of 2010-2011 scenario is looming. There is a chance for stabilization and for price performance to look more like in 2016-2019. Source: USDA

COTTON price took a big hit during June 2022. Source: xStation5