Crypto under 'risk aversion' pressure before the weekend

Bitcoin is still trying to withstand supply pressure and stop the bears pushing the price below $20,000. Cryptocurrencies have been in retreat since the successful Ethereum Merge:

• Investors are worried about the Fed decision, which will be announced as early as September 21, resulting in a pullback in the cryptocurrency market
• The swaps market is pricing in a more than 80% chance of a 75bp hike and leaving the door open for a 100bp hike, which would put even more pressure on risky assets
• U.S. index contracts suggest a lower opening to the U.S. cash session
• It seems that the expected 75bp Fed hike is already priced in by which we may see risk realization when such a scenario materializes, which may herald a rebound. However, the risk of a 100bp hike is still holding back the bulls 
• Wall Street will focus on Powell's comments around the continued cycle of hikes. Recently, the BlackRock fund has been calling for a debate with the Fed and easing the cycle by extending the time in which the Federal Reserve could bring inflation to the required 2%
• Bankers have warned of anchored high inflation expectations, which could remain high in opposition to the Fed's actions
• Bitcoin once again shows the strength of demand, which keeps the price above $19,000 

Weekends in the past have often proven to be a phase of elevated volatility and declining volume, supporting significant cryptocurrency market movements

The on-chain metric, thanks to the Realized Profit/Loss indicator, allows to determine the ratio of loss-making to profit-making tokens. The indicator on September 11 showed a realized reading of 0.58, and has fallen sharply from mid-August levels with what confirmed the still prevailing number of bitcoins drowning in losses on the market. The August drop in the realized gain/loss ratio coincided with Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, which stripped Wall Street of its dreams of a Fed pivot. Current levels indicate the prevalence of active supply, which is pulling cryptocurrency prices down (investors are selling ever more cheaply, accepting losses). This phase has been going on for nearly 4 months and began with the avalanche-like sudden collapse of the Luna/Terra project. During the 2018/2019 bull market, a comparable and analogous phase of declines lasted 6 months. No improvement in the index is currently visible on the horizon. Source: GlassnodeThe address group of short-term investors can be analyzed through the Short Term Holder SOPR indicator. This group is particularly important at the moment because it is the one that made massive purchases during Bitcoin's rise from $18,000 to nearly $25,000. At the time, the group of long-term investors demonstrated the ability to distribute i.e. used the increase to liquidate the tokens higher, contrary to the short-term addresses what is generally not a favorable trend for Bitcoin. Following this, measuring the trend among STH can suggest to us the further behavior of the Bitcoin price. The chart divided the behavior of this group into three phases. The first phase has to do with the immediate panic so we can call it the 'bubble burst' phase (A), then the SOPR falls below 1.0 for a while. Then there is a bear market phase (B), where the Bitcoin price is pushed lower and lower and demand fails to change the trend. The last phase (C), is the phase that STH (short-term investors) are currently in and has to do with unrealized losses and the constant breath of 'supply' that the market feels on itself. This phase, through accumulating stress and a decline in the market's faith, often leads to a final capitulation, after which only Bitcoin tends to recover and SOPR recovers. Source: GlassnodeBitcoin chart, D1 interval. Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, however, the bulls are currently cushioning the strong supply. It seems that in the short term, the key resistance level for the king of cryptocurrencies remains $20,700, which coincides with the 200-session moving average on the hourly interval. The RSI looks interesting, showing a bullish divergence with the falling price of the cryptocurrency.  Source: xStation5