EUR/USD is in focus today ahead of the US CPI release scheduled for 14:30 Polish time. The market expects inflation to accelerate to 3.6% y/y from 3.4% previously and to 0.6% m/m from 0.4% previously. Higher gasoline prices may push up the September headline reading, although underlying inflationary pressures excluding food and energy are expected to show signs of moderation.
- In an extreme scenario that could support a renewed pullback in EUR/USD, we would expect higher-than-forecast readings for both headline and core CPI. Such an outcome would suggest that inflationary pressures are gradually broadening beyond volatile energy and food prices.
- On the other hand, CPI readings in line with or below expectations, accompanied by relatively subdued core inflation, could provide an interesting backdrop for a rebound in EUR/USD and potentially push market expectations for US rate hikes from 2026 into 2027.
EUR/USD chart (H1, D1 intervals)
EUR/USD is currently trading at its lowest levels since late spring 2025, although the pair has started to stabilize around 1.12. We can also see the RSI beginning to rebound from oversold territory and approaching 33, while a potentially bullish moving-average crossover is forming on the MACD. The key short-term resistance may be around 1.135, defined by recent price reactions in this area, while the nearest support is located around 1.114.
Source: XTB
The importance of the 1.135 resistance area is also reinforced by the fact that it corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the downward wave that began in late summer this year. Price reactions may also emerge around 1.128 along the way, although it is worth stressing that a rebound is by no means guaranteed. A move back toward 1.114 could potentially open the way for EUR/USD to decline toward the 1.10 area.
Source: XTB
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