Morning Wrap: OpenAI Revenue Concerns Weigh on Wall Street

🌍 Stock Market

• US stock indices ended yesterday's session in a weak mood, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling by over 1.2% and the S&P 500 declining by about 0.5%.

• The main driver of market pressure was concern over OpenAI's results, whose current annualized revenue run rate stands at around $50 billion, compared to the $70 billion expected by part of the market.

• Disappointment with OpenAI's estimates hit chipmakers and energy companies directly, undermining previous optimism regarding the scale of further investments in the AI sector.

• Donald Trump disclosed that in August he purchased Nvidia shares worth up to $1.6 million and sold papers of the same company for up to $1 million. The news emerged on the day the US President was scheduled to present Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang with the National Medal of Science, raising concerns over a potential conflict of interest, especially in light of planned administration regulations on advanced chip exports.

• Most Asian stock markets logged gains, ignoring concerns related to OpenAI's revenue. The Hang Seng gained 1.2%, the FTSE China 50 rose 1.3%, and the Australian S&P/ASX 200 strengthened by 0.6%.

• The exception in Asia was Japan's Nikkei 225, which remained under pressure and fell by 0.1%. Meanwhile, trading in South Korea was closed due to a public holiday.

🕊️ Geopolitics

• Donald Trump announced that the US will not launch an attack on Iran before the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, citing progress in talks with Tehran.

• The US President's statement eased fears of an immediate escalation, although geopolitical risks persist due to the ongoing blockade and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

• According to media reports, the US military is on full alert to carry out a brief operation against Iran, targeting energy facilities and missile infrastructure, should it receive a direct order from Donald Trump.

• Tensions in the region are also sustained by ongoing fighting in Yemen and attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants on targets in Saudi Arabia, posing a continuous threat to energy infrastructure and maritime routes.

📊 Macroeconomics

• US labor market data remains mixed: initial jobless claims dropped to 197,000, remaining near multi-year lows and indicating a low level of layoffs alongside a noticeable slowdown in hiring.

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) is not easing up on its fight against inflation, and persistent price pressures clearly increase the likelihood of further interest rate hikes, potentially as early as December.

• Household spending in Japan fell by 3.1% YoY in August, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline (though the result was better than market expectations). On a MoM basis, consumption grew by just 0.1% compared to the forecasted 0.5%, highlighting the lack of translation from rising real wages into demand and leaving the Bank of Japan with a dilemma regarding further monetary tightening.

• Looser currency policy in China: the People's Bank of China (PBoC) set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7330, significantly above market expectations of 6.6973.

🛢️ Commodities & Precious Metals

• Donald Trump's statement on Iran led to a drop in crude oil prices, reducing the premium for the risk of an immediate strike.

• Exceptional sentiment prevails in the precious metals market: gold futures are rising by nearly 1.5% and breaking above $4,200 per ounce.

• Silver is posting even stronger gains, surging over 2% to trade at $60.5 per ounce.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• The cryptocurrency market continues its positive streak: Bitcoin gains about 1% and holds above $82,000.

• Ethereum rises by approximately 0.6%, testing the $2,500 level.